Confirmed previous forecast
0.001802
Relative Brier Score
8
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 4 | 19 | 8 | 38 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 14 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will Iran launch missiles targeting Israel or conduct an airstrike in Israel in the next six months?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 31, 2024 to Sep 30, 2024
99%
(0%)
No
Mar 31, 2024 to Sep 30, 2024
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 31, 2024 to Sep 30, 2024
99%
(0%)
No
Mar 31, 2024 to Sep 30, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 31, 2024 to Sep 30, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 31, 2024 to Sep 30, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Iran launch missiles targeting Israel or conduct an airstrike in Israel in the next six months?
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
Yes
Feb 19, 2024 to Aug 19, 2024
99%
No
Feb 19, 2024 to Aug 19, 2024
It would be surprising given the current status; Iran has to keep their international image
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Mar 19, 2024 09:27PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
Yes
Feb 19, 2024 to Aug 19, 2024
99%
No
Feb 19, 2024 to Aug 19, 2024
Iran is eager to disrupt U.S. and Israeli interests in the Middle East but wary of provoking a direct confrontation. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/02/18/iran-proxies-middle-east/
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Apr 26, 2024 04:55PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Jan 26, 2024 to Jul 26, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files