12th
Accuracy Rank

TBall

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    Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
    Aug 8, 2025 04:00PM Will the number of acres burned by wildfires in the United States in July 2025 exceed 1,283,147 acres? -0.048999
    Aug 1, 2025 09:00PM Will U.S. President Donald Trump’s approval rating be greater than 45% on 1 August 2025? 0.090271
    Aug 1, 2025 04:01AM Will all NATO members agree to a defense spending target of 5% of GDP by 31 July 2025? -0.002104
    Aug 1, 2025 04:01AM Will the U.S. national average gas price be equal to or above $3.600 for July 2025? -0.001613
    Aug 1, 2025 04:01AM Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025? -0.00003
    Jul 1, 2025 05:01AM Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 6, 2024 and Jan 1, 2025) -0.144
    Jul 1, 2025 05:01AM Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 6, 2024 and Jan 1, 2025) 0.002238
    Jul 1, 2025 04:01AM Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025? 0.000604
    Jul 1, 2025 04:01AM Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025? -0.00001
    Jul 1, 2025 04:01AM Will the U.S. Congress pass a budget reconciliation bill before 1 July 2025? -0.002241
    Jun 25, 2025 02:00AM Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic mayoral primary for New York City on 24 June 2025 in five rounds or fewer? -0.00112
    Jun 21, 2025 11:50PM Will the United States launch a kinetic strike against Iran before 1 August 2025? -0.132067
    Jun 13, 2025 06:32PM Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 26, 2024 and Jun 13, 2025) -0.103376
    May 31, 2025 05:00PM On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap? 0.078432
    Feb 4, 2025 05:00PM Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 4, 2025 and Feb 4, 2025) -0.002177
    Feb 2, 2025 04:00PM Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 2, 2025 and Feb 2, 2025) 0.017884
    Jan 11, 2025 05:01AM Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025? 0.046209
    Jan 4, 2025 05:00PM Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 4, 2024 and Jan 4, 2025) -0.003758
    Jan 2, 2025 04:00PM Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 2, 2024 and Jan 2, 2025) 0.019981
    Jan 1, 2025 07:00PM Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 1, 2024 and Jan 1, 2025) -0.067106
     
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