Ceasefire seems to be holding and only the normal LoC violations are occurring. The probability of one fatality seems much higher to me than the probability of 100 unformed casualties.
-0.164987
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| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Another terror attack would change my forecast, as would a significant violation of the LoC.
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Star Commenter - Jul 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
Yes
97%
No
Why do you think you're right?
US-ROK trade deal just announced.
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Why might you be wrong?
Trump's mercurial decision-making.
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New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
(0%)
Yes
0%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Comment
MONROE CANYON FIRE PROJECTED INCIDENT ACTIVITY 24 hours: Active to extreme fire behavior with torching, crown runs, wind driven runs, and spotting. Fire spread is expected to the north toward long flat and east toward the forest boundary. Extended burn period as the fire will remain active throughout the night. ERC is near the 100.
48 hours: Active to extreme fire behavior with torching and spotting as the fire continues to spread north and east. Incomplete fuels treatments provide a source of intense heat and greatly increase the difficulty of control. Overnight recovery is poor leading to longer burn periods and greater chance of additional acres added. ERC remains near the 100.
72 hours: Only slightly improving conditions. The environment and fuels remains critically dry. Active fire behavior will continue with torching and spotting and up-slope runs to the north and east threatening critical values.
72 hours: Fire weather forecast shows little signs of relief, active fire behavior is expected until conditions change. Structures and other critical values will remain threatened. Heavy fuels will remain the primary driver of fire behavior. As the fire moves more downhill, shrub fuels will begin to contribute to fire spread. ERC will remain at or above the 90th percentile.
https://www.mapofire.com/fires/140909715/utah/monroe-canyon-fire#8.52/38.4856/-112.1918
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Dragon Bravo Fire now reported at 85k acres, 30k more than this time yesterday.
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From the resolution source: "In July, 6,708 fires (7th least since 2000) burned 1,442,886 acres (13th most on record), which is 215.10 acres burned/fire (11th most)."
1,442,886 > 1,283,147!
[https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/fire/202507]
So, spot on what we had reported on July 31: https://www.randforecastinginitiative.org/comments/190641