Confirmed previous forecast
-0.164987
Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
Scored Questions
129
Forecasts
96
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 9 | 20 | 205 | 129 | 652 |
| Comments | 10 | 40 | 312 | 283 | 529 |
| Questions Forecasted | 7 | 13 | 39 | 28 | 114 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 7 | 109 | 96 | 187 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will hostilities between Pakistan and India result in at least 100 total uniformed casualties (with at least one death) between 2 June 2025 and 30 September 2025?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-1%)
Yes
99%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Time is running out.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Always possible that error, miscalculation, etc. trips the wire.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Moldova
2%
(0%)
Armenia
3%
(0%)
Georgia
2%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Estonia
3%
(0%)
Latvia
4%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
0%
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
0%
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
5%
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
95%
Not before 2026
Why do you think you're right?
For reasons of political survival, Zelensky cannot agree to cede territory and the public/Rada would not go along; Putin sees his forces making incremental progress and anyway cannot agree to European boots on the ground of security guarantees for Ukraine; Trump would find it hard, but not impossible, to really ramp up sanctions/etc. pressure on Russia.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
As @VidurKapur writes, "If the US increases pressure on Russia by giving Ukraine more military aid and applying more sanctions and secondary tariffs, Russia could make actual concessions before October." And the ceasefire need not last long at all for this question to close in the affirmative.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-1%)
Less than 600
25%
(-3%)
Between 600 and 629, inclusive
48%
(+5%)
Between 630 and 659, inclusive
20%
(+4%)
Between 660 and 689, inclusive
5%
(-5%)
More than or equal to 690
Why do you think you're right?
Updates by ACLED.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
84%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 1
14%
(0%)
Between 2 and 3, inclusive
2%
(0%)
Between 4 and 5, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 6
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
84%
(-4%)
Less than or equal to 1
14%
(+3%)
Between 2 and 3, inclusive
2%
(+1%)
Between 4 and 5, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 6
Why do you think you're right?
Moderating a bit..."Disturbance 1" plus two more currently in Atlantic show that late August and September could be active.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(+2%)
Less than 600
28%
(+25%)
Between 600 and 629, inclusive
43%
(+28%)
Between 630 and 659, inclusive
16%
(-20%)
Between 660 and 689, inclusive
10%
(-35%)
More than or equal to 690
Why do you think you're right?
I miscounted the first time, accidentally including 7/31. For the seven days August 1-7, average of 20.43 per day x 31 = 633.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Less than 600
3%
Between 600 and 629, inclusive
15%
Between 630 and 659, inclusive
36%
Between 660 and 689, inclusive
45%
More than or equal to 690
Why do you think you're right?
Average 24.1 per day August 1-8.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Hotter than normal weather discourages outdoor activity, hurricane, etc.
Files