First forecast swag.
-0.011302
Relative Brier Score
180
Forecasts
41
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 9 | 14 | 166 | 47 | 401 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 45 | 10 | 103 |
| Questions Forecasted | 8 | 8 | 33 | 11 | 72 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 39 | 6 | 77 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
Kuwait
2%
Oman
3%
Qatar
15%
Saudi Arabia
2%
Tunisia
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
45%
(-25%)
Yes
Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024
Adjusting downward. The tit-for-tat strikes seem to have ended. Israel will do anything it can non-kinetically (i.e., cyber).
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Yes
Rounding to nearest integer.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
Affirming.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
Affirming.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(-4%)
Yes
Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024
95%
(+4%)
No
Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024
Six months is a long time. Gaza could be largely wrapped up by then. Iran could flex its muscles nastily and change hearts and minds in the region. 1-in-20 seems reasonable.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
8%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 28, 2024 to Oct 28, 2024
92%
(0%)
No
Apr 28, 2024 to Oct 28, 2024
Holding steady. A lot can happen in six months...renewed fighting between Israel and Iran would help align interests in Riyadh and Jerusalem.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
72 hours to go....
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
70%
(+50%)
Yes
Apr 16, 2024 to Oct 16, 2024
Following the Iranian attack on Israel...the war cabinet members have sworn to respond.
Files
Holding until William Lai is inaugurated.