Forecasted Questions
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 28, 2024 04:59PM UTC
(4 days ago)
Apr 28, 2024 04:59PM UTC
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 8% | Apr 28, 2024 to Oct 28, 2024 | May 28, 2024 | 6% | +2% | +4% |
| No | 92% | Apr 28, 2024 to Oct 28, 2024 | May 28, 2024 | 94% | -2% | -4% |
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2024 05:49PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Apr 30, 2024 05:49PM UTC
(1 day ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024 | May 30, 2024 | 3% | +2% | -1% |
| No | 95% | Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024 | May 30, 2024 | 97% | -2% | +1% |
Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or missile-related facility in the next 6 months?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2024 05:53PM UTC
(1 day ago)
Apr 30, 2024 05:53PM UTC
(1 day ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 45% | Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024 | May 30, 2024 | 23% | +22% | -4% |
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 01, 2024 12:26AM UTC
(1 day ago)
May 01, 2024 12:26AM UTC
(1 day ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kuwait | 3% | 2% | +1% | +0% |
| Oman | 2% | 2% | +0% | +0% |
| Qatar | 3% | 2% | +1% | 0% |
| Saudi Arabia | 15% | 5% | +10% | +0% |
| Tunisia | 2% | 1% | +1% | 0% |
Will Australia issue a Level 3 or Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan before 1 July 2024?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 01, 2024 12:27AM UTC
(1 day ago)
May 01, 2024 12:27AM UTC
(1 day ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 1% | +1% | 0% |
| No | 98% | 99% | -1% | 0% |