INFER Public

Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army invade Taiwan by May 31, 2021?

Question Ends:
Nov 11, 2020 04:52PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 28, 2020 03:29AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will Microsoft announce an agreement to purchase TikTok service in the United States by September 15, 2020?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Sep 16, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 10, 2020 04:19PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the third quarter of 2020 (ending September 30)?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Sep 23, 2020 07:00PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 19, 2020 06:42PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $190 billion		Answer was incorrect
Between $190 billion and $230 billion, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than $230 billion but less than or equal to $270 billion		Answer was correct
More than $270 billion but less than or equal to $310 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than $310 billion		Answer was incorrect

How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 25, 2020 08:51PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 6,000		Answer was incorrect
Between 6,000 and 8,000, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 8,000 but less than or equal to 10,000		Answer was incorrect
More than 10,000 but less than or equal to 12,000		Answer was correct
More than 12,000		Answer was incorrect

What percentage of O-1 visas will go to Chinese nationals between July 1 and September 30, 2020, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Sep 28, 2020 08:00PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 27, 2020 04:30PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 2%		Answer was correct
Between 2% and 4% inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 4% but less than or equal to 6%		Answer was incorrect
More than 6% but less than or equal to 8%		Answer was incorrect
More than 8%		Answer was incorrect

Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea by September 30, 2020?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 28, 2020 09:07PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

How many times will the Japanese Air Force respond to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft between April 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 01, 2021 03:52AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 675		Answer was correct
Between 675 and 750, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 750 but less than or equal to 825		Answer was incorrect
More than 825 but less than or equal to 900		Answer was incorrect
More than 900		Answer was incorrect

When will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
May 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 24, 2021 06:33PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Before February 17, 2021		Answer was incorrect
Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021		Answer was incorrect
After November 17, 2021		Answer was correct

Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 30, 2021 07:32PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea before July 1, 2021?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 19, 2021 03:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 30, 2021 09:21PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

TBall

About: