Forecasted Questions
What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2022?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Apr 01, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 13, 2021 03:35PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Oct 13, 2021 03:35PM UTC
(2 years ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 14% | 10% | 3% | +7% | -3% |
| Between 14% and 16%, inclusive | 40% | 12% | +28% | -6% |
| More than 16% but less than or equal to 18% | 25% | 31% | -6% | -2% |
| More than 18% but less than or equal to 20% | 15% | 40% | -25% | +10% |
| More than 20% | 10% | 14% | -4% | +1% |
What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2022?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Nov 15, 2021 11:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Nov 15, 2021 11:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 13, 2021 03:35PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Oct 13, 2021 03:35PM UTC
(2 years ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 2% | 0% | 7% | -7% | -1% |
| Between 2% and 4%, inclusive | 10% | 23% | -13% | -2% |
| More than 4% but less than or equal to 6% | 50% | 33% | +17% | -1% |
| More than 6% but less than or equal to 8% | 40% | 21% | +19% | +0% |
| More than 8% | 0% | 16% | -16% | +3% |
How will annual money raised by U.S. tech startups change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 05, 2021 10:27PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Dec 05, 2021 10:27PM UTC
(2 years ago)
How politically polarized will U.S. citizens be in 2024?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 05, 2021 10:27PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Dec 05, 2021 10:27PM UTC
(2 years ago)
How will the percentage of U.S residents who are concerned about how the government uses their data change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 05, 2021 10:27PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Dec 05, 2021 10:27PM UTC
(2 years ago)
What will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 05, 2021 10:27PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Dec 05, 2021 10:27PM UTC
(2 years ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than -0.25 | 20% | 14% | +6% | +0% |
| Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive | 30% | 31% | -1% | +0% |
| More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25 | 45% | 33% | +12% | +1% |
| More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5 | 5% | 17% | -12% | +0% |
| More than 0.5 | 0% | 4% | -4% | +0% |