INFER Public

Will the United States add SMIC to the Entity List by October 14, 2020?

Question Ends:
Oct 15, 2020 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 18, 2020 05:26PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

How much funding will U.S. tech startups raise between July 1 and December 31, 2020, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Dec 07, 2020 09:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 18, 2020 06:04PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $12 billion		Answer was incorrect
Between $12 billion and $16 billion, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than $16 billion but less than or equal to $20 billion		Answer was correct
More than $20 billion but less than or equal to $24 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than $24 billion		Answer was incorrect

What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 11, 2020 04:39PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 15%		Answer was incorrect
Between 15% and 17%, inclusive		Answer was correct
More than 17% but less than or equal to 19%		Answer was incorrect
More than 19% but less than or equal to 21%		Answer was incorrect
More than 21%		Answer was incorrect

How many postings for U.S. jobs requiring machine learning skills will be published between January 1 and March 31, 2021, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 11, 2020 04:59PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 30,000		Answer was incorrect
Between 30,000 and 38,000, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 38,000 but less than or equal to 46,000		Answer was incorrect
More than 46,000 but less than or equal to 54,000		Answer was incorrect
More than 54,000		Answer was correct

What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2021 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
May 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 27, 2020 02:27AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 59%		Answer was incorrect
Between 59% and 66%, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 66% but less than or equal to 73%		Answer was incorrect
More than 73% but less than or equal to 80%		Answer was correct
More than 80%		Answer was incorrect

Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between January 1 and June 30, 2021, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 13, 2020 05:40PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

What percentage of the combined revenue of the top five semiconductor manufacturing equipment producers will come from China in 2021?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Apr 20, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 13, 2021 05:35PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 20%		Answer was incorrect
Between 20% and 25%, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 25% but less than or equal to 30%		Answer was correct
More than 30% but less than or equal to 35%		Answer was incorrect
More than 35%		Answer was incorrect

Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 11, 2021 10:19PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 27, 2021 04:32PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 0.45%		Answer was incorrect
Between 0.45% and 0.7%, inclusive		Answer was correct
More than 0.7% but less than or equal to 0.95%		Answer was incorrect
More than 0.95% but less than or equal to 1.2%		Answer was incorrect
More than 1.2%		Answer was incorrect

Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 27, 2021 04:48PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

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