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Forecasted Questions

[Experimental] Did COVID-19 originate in a lab in Wuhan, China?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2021 05:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2021 02:47PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 20% 35%

What will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 28, 2021 11:04PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than -0.25 15% 14%
Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive 35% 31%
More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25 30% 33%
More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5 10% 17%
More than 0.5 10% 4%

How politically polarized will U.S. citizens be in 2024?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 28, 2021 11:05PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Which tech company will be the first to reach a market cap of $5 trillion?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Feb 28, 2022 01:34PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 16, 2022 05:23PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Apple 27% 48%
Microsoft 19% 22%
Alphabet (Google) 19% 13%
Amazon 19% 10%
Tesla 10% 3%
Meta (Facebook) 5% 1%
Other 1% 2%

How will the percentage of SMIC revenue from 28 nm chips or smaller change over the next three years?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 31, 2022 08:17PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Which company will be the largest semiconductor company by sales revenue in 2022?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Nov 01, 2022 04:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2022 10:04AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Intel 3% 16%
Samsung 26% 53%
TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) 71% 30%
Other 0% 0%

What percentage of the world's AI patents will be granted in the United States in 2022?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 08, 2022 05:03PM UTC
(1 year ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 40% 59% 51%
More than or equal to 40% but less than 50% 41% 38%
More than or equal to 50% but less than 60% 0% 10%
More than or equal to 60% 0% 1%

What percentage of the world's AI patents will be granted in China in 2022?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 09, 2022 02:46PM UTC
(1 year ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 5% 3% 5%
More than or equal to 5% but less than 7% 77% 73%
More than or equal to 7% 20% 22%

What percentage of the world's AI patents will be granted in the European Union and United Kingdom in 2022?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 15, 2022 04:28PM UTC
(1 year ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 7% 50% 43%
More than or equal to 7% but less than 10% 50% 53%
More than or equal to 10% 0% 4%

What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Mar 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 28, 2023 05:09PM UTC
(1 year ago)
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