Forecasted Questions
[Experimental] Did COVID-19 originate in a lab in Wuhan, China?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2021 05:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Oct 01, 2021 05:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2021 02:47PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Sep 29, 2021 02:47PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 20% | 35% | -15% | +2% |
What will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 28, 2021 11:04PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Nov 28, 2021 11:04PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than -0.25 | 15% | 14% | +1% | -1% |
Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive | 35% | 31% | +4% | +0% |
More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25 | 30% | 33% | -3% | +1% |
More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5 | 10% | 17% | -7% | +0% |
More than 0.5 | 10% | 4% | +6% | +0% |
How politically polarized will U.S. citizens be in 2024?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 28, 2021 11:05PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Nov 28, 2021 11:05PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Which tech company will be the first to reach a market cap of $5 trillion?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Feb 28, 2022 01:34PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Feb 28, 2022 01:34PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 16, 2022 05:23PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Feb 16, 2022 05:23PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Apple | 27% | 48% | -21% | +11% |
Microsoft | 19% | 22% | -3% | +3% |
Alphabet (Google) | 19% | 13% | +6% | -3% |
Amazon | 19% | 10% | +9% | -5% |
Tesla | 10% | 3% | +7% | -3% |
Meta (Facebook) | 5% | 1% | +4% | -3% |
Other | 1% | 2% | -1% | -1% |
How will the percentage of SMIC revenue from 28 nm chips or smaller change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 31, 2022 08:17PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Mar 31, 2022 08:17PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Which company will be the largest semiconductor company by sales revenue in 2022?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Nov 01, 2022 04:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Nov 01, 2022 04:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 28, 2022 10:04AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Oct 28, 2022 10:04AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Intel | 3% | 16% | -13% | -1% |
Samsung | 26% | 53% | -27% | -5% |
TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) | 71% | 30% | +41% | +7% |
Other | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
What percentage of the world's AI patents will be granted in the United States in 2022?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 08, 2022 05:03PM UTC
(1 year ago)
Dec 08, 2022 05:03PM UTC
(1 year ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than 40% | 59% | 51% | +8% | -5% |
More than or equal to 40% but less than 50% | 41% | 38% | +3% | +0% |
More than or equal to 50% but less than 60% | 0% | 10% | -10% | +5% |
More than or equal to 60% | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
What percentage of the world's AI patents will be granted in China in 2022?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 09, 2022 02:46PM UTC
(1 year ago)
Dec 09, 2022 02:46PM UTC
(1 year ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than 5% | 3% | 5% | -2% | +0% |
More than or equal to 5% but less than 7% | 77% | 73% | +4% | +4% |
More than or equal to 7% | 20% | 22% | -2% | -4% |
What percentage of the world's AI patents will be granted in the European Union and United Kingdom in 2022?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 15, 2022 04:28PM UTC
(1 year ago)
Dec 15, 2022 04:28PM UTC
(1 year ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than 7% | 50% | 43% | +7% | +1% |
More than or equal to 7% but less than 10% | 50% | 53% | -3% | -1% |
More than or equal to 10% | 0% | 4% | -4% | +0% |
What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Mar 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Mar 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 28, 2023 05:09PM UTC
(1 year ago)
Feb 28, 2023 05:09PM UTC
(1 year ago)