Samantha

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Relative Brier Score

16

Forecasts

0

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Forecasting Activity
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No forecasts in the past 3 months
 

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Forecasts 0 0 0 0 209
Comments 0 0 0 0 34
Questions Forecasted 0 0 0 0 57
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 0 0 61
 Definitions
New Prediction
Samantha
made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
31% (-32%)
Less than 300 million CHF
59% (+29%)
More than or equal to 300 million CHF but less than 350 million CHF
10% (+3%)
More than or equal to 350 million CHF
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Samantha
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
88% (0%)
Less than 20%
12% (0%)
More than or equal to 20% but less than 24%
0% (0%)
More than or equal to 24%
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction

Seeing the data set now in the background information. I doubt there being enough demand within the next year such that a company sees it worth it to risk a drop from ~$600 to $100, expecting to sustain that price through any questions of quality or use. 

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New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

No significant news since last update. News of advisors predictions. News of elites deaths may be pre-divorce pics but I think this is not a three month turn around.

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Why might you be wrong?


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