February 28, 2022


Just released: New microelectronics questions signal future AI competitiveness

We released a new set of questions on microelectronics, a topic that is high priority for U.S. Government policymakers. We need your forecasts on the following signals to assess future U.S. competitiveness in AI:

What makes microelectronics a high priority?

Integrated circuits provide the foundational hardware for the computational power that has fueled advances in AI and other emerging technologies. The most advanced micro-chips in the world are now made by Taiwan, and the U.S. currently sources more than 90% of integrated circuit production from East Asia. This has created supply chain vulnerabilities that could compromise multiple technologies and platforms. The National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence (NSCAI) argues that in order to remedy this challenge, the U.S. should seek to regain and retain a two generation lead in microelectronic technology. The goal of our microelectronics forecast questions is to assess whether the U.S. will be successful in that effort.


$2,000 March Madness Challenge*

Activate a team of 6 or more forecasters in March and be entered to win up to $2,000 (more details will be released soon). As you begin or continue to forecast on INFER, creating or joining a team can help you improve your accuracy and consistency and provide a fun sense of community! How to create your team:
  1. All teammates need an account on INFER
  2. As a team host, put in a request to create a team - you'll need to enter everyone's usernames
  3. An INFER admin will approve the request
  4. Make sure everyone on your team forecasts in March, and continue adding as many people as you like! You'll receive an entry into the drawing for every day in March that someone is active (i.e., they make a forecast).
+ We're giving away more than $10,000 in new challenges coming soon! To recognize the valuable contributions from our community of forecasters, INFER will introduce new forecast challenges totaling more than $10,000 in rewards beginning in March. Be on the lookout for an announcement.
*Notes: If you already have a team of 6 or more, you will be entered into the challenge with your existing team as long as every team member is active in March. If you are a Pro Forecaster, you may create a team to enter the March Madness Challenge, but your teammates cannot also be Pro Forecasters.


INFER is forecasting...

9% chance that China will fire upon another country's vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months.

3% chance that the U.S. and China announce an established ongoing bilateral dialog mechanism that includes discussions of emerging technologies in the next six months.

6% chance that the U.S. President will sign a law making unused employment based green cards from previous years available to employment based immigrants. 

42% chance that Crunchbase's "Hub for AI Companies Founded in the Last Year" will report these companies raised $250-300 million in funding on June 30, 2022.


On draft at The Pub

Get better answers by asking better questions: Understanding strategic question decomposition

Pro Forecasters: what they do and why they're an important part of INFER Public

New feature releases: analysis tab, comment filters

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Thank you for reading!
The INFER Public Team
Copyright © 2022
INFER is a forecasting program run by the Applied Research Laboratory for Intelligence and Security (ARLIS) at the University of Maryland and Cultivate Labs. Funding is provided by Open Philanthropy
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