Will any of the following countries announce on or before 31 March 2023 that they are joining the United States’ chip export ban against China?

Started Jan 19, 2023 08:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC

In October 2022, the United States announced measures aimed at controlling China’s access to advanced semiconductor chips, including export restrictions on both advanced chips and the equipment needed to manufacture them (Reuters). Since then, the United States has attempted to convince key allies, most notably Japan, Netherlands, and South Korea, to join the ban as well (Bloomberg).  In January 2023, President Biden met with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte to continue discussions.  
 
This question will be resolved using an official announcement by the relevant country. Announcements which specify that a country will be following some, but not all, of the U.S. measures will resolve as "Yes". 

Read more about the U.S.'s semiconductor export controls on the INFER blog.

Additional Reading: 

Question clarification
Issued on 02/14/23 04:27pm
For the purposes of this question, if Taiwan were to join the United States' chip ban, the answer option "Any other country not listed" will resolve as "Yes".
Resolution Notes

https://www.reuters.com/technology/dutch-responds-us-china-policy-with-plan-curb-semiconductor-tech-exports-2023-03-08/
https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/08/tech/dutch-china-chips-ban-hnk-intl/index.html

We are resolving this question as "yes" for Japan. On 31 March 2023, Japan announced new export restrictions that require companies to obtain a license in order to export certain semiconductor manufacturing equipment. China is subject to these restrictions, but the other largest manufacturers of semiconductors (i.e., South Korea, Taiwan, and the United States) are exempt (CNN). This follows the U.S.’s decision to place similar export controls on semiconductor manufacturing equipment and an agreement-in-principle between the U.S., the Netherlands, and Japan to restrict exports to China (New York Times).


On 10 March we treated the Dutch government policy statement to parliament as an official announcement meeting the questions criteria (Reuters, Government of the Netherlands). Japan has made a similar policy public (Reuters, Government of Japan) and so this question will also be resolved as "yes" for Japan. This was not a straightforward decision because of the way that Japanese officials have characterized that policy in subsequent statements. While these statements serve a diplomatic purpose, they do not alter the substance of the policy, which was publicly announced on 31 March.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Japan 33%
The Netherlands 60%
South Korea 12%
Any other country not listed 8%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 118
Average for questions older than 6 months: 58
Number of Forecasts 426
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.202397
2.
-0.194166
3.
-0.192343
4.
-0.191651
5.
-0.186225

Consensus Trend

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