Will SpaceX launch Starship into orbit before 1 April 2023?

Started Mar 09, 2023 08:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC
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SpaceX’s Starship is a super-heavy-lift rocket and spacecraft, and if successful, would be the most powerful rocket system ever launched (Mashable, NASASpaceflight.com, BBC). SpaceX had been preparing for Starship’s first orbital launch test to occur in late 2022, but static fire tests have yet to ignite all 33 Raptor engines (CNET, NASASpaceflight.com). The test flight is now projected for March 2023 (Engadget, Space). 


This question will be resolved based on open-source media reporting. The reports must indicate that Starship reached orbit. If Starship fails to reach orbit before 1 April 2023, this question will resolve “No”. 
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1.06%
No 98.94%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 84
Average for questions older than 6 months: 58
Number of Forecasts 140
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.011661
2.
-0.007887
3.
-0.007887
4.
-0.006443
5.
-0.00527

Consensus Trend

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