Will Sweden become a full member of NATO before the NATO Summit in July 2023?

Started Apr 14, 2023 08:30PM UTC
Closed Jul 11, 2023 04:00AM UTC

In the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Finland and Sweden moved to join the NATO alliance (USIP, CNN). Accession talks were completed in July 2022, and both countries were set to join NATO after the parliaments of all NATO states ratified their accession (NATO, Reuters). Turkey and Hungary, the only two states not to ratify in 2022, ratified Finland’s membership in March, allowing Finland to become a full member but Sweden still waiting for a decision (NATO, Politico, BBC). Sweden has ratified protocols domestically, so once all NATO member countries agree to the accession protocols, Sweden can formally become a NATO member by acceding to the North Atlantic Treaty and depositing their instruments of accession with the U.S. State Department (AP News, NATO). 

This question will be resolved using an official NATO announcement that Sweden’s instruments of accession have been deposited with the U.S. State Department before the start of the upcoming NATO Summit on 11 July 2023. Recent examples of such announcements include Montenegro’s and North Macedonia’s accessions to NATO.

The end date of this question will be extended if the meeting is postponed or rescheduled. If the meeting is cancelled or a new date is not set by 11 July (the current date of the summit), then 11 July will be used as the question’s deadline.


Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 2.65%
No 97.35%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 110
Average for questions older than 6 months: 58
Number of Forecasts 481
Average for questions older than 6 months: 201
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.073
3.
-0.067
4.
-0.067
5.
-0.053

Consensus Trend

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username