Will Iran launch missiles targeting Israel or conduct an airstrike in Israel in the next six months?

Started Nov 01, 2023 08:00PM UTC
Forecast Window 6 months

The war between Israel and Hamas risks escalating into a wider regional conflict (NBC News, Vox). While Iran has denied involvement in Hamas’ attack and stated that it does not want the war to spread, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian has warned that if Israel does not halt its airstrikes, “it is highly probable that many other fronts will be opened” (Reuters, CNN).

Resolution Criteria:  
This question will be resolved using credible, open-source news reporting that Iran has launched missiles targeting Israel or conducted an airstrike in Israel. Missiles or aircraft intercepted before reaching their target will still count toward resolution as long as credible reports (including statements by either Iran or Israel) indicate that they were targeting Israel. Attacks on Israeli forces outside of Israeli territory or airspace will not be considered. Attacks by non-state actors or militias allied with Iran will not count towards resolution.

This question is part of the issue decomposition on “Iran's Influence on Violent Non-State Actors.” For more, see INFER's explainer, issue reports, and other questions in this decomposition.

Question clarification
Issued on 11/09/23 06:02pm
Strikes within Gaza or the West Bank will not count towards resolution, regardless of whether Israel makes any territorial claims on those regions. An attack by Hamas that Iran is alleged to have supported or been involved with will not count towards resolution.
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