Will Houthi rebels launch a missile that strikes within Israel in the next six months?
Started
Nov 15, 2023 11:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 18, 2024 04:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 18, 2024 04:00PM UTC
Tags
Seasons
In October 2023, a U.S. Navy warship intercepted missiles from Houthi forces in Yemen that were suspected of heading towards targets in Israel (CNN). Subsequent attacks have since been intercepted or fallen short (Reuters). Notably, Houthi forces launched a missile from Yemen that traveled at least 1,600 km, reportedly the longest distance traveled by a ballistic missile, before being intercepted by Israel’s Arrow air-defense system (Business Insider, Haaretz).
Resolution Criteria:
This question will be resolved using credible, open-source news reports confirming that Houthi rebels launched a missile that struck an impact point within Israel. Missiles making impact inside Gaza or the West Bank will not count toward resolution. Missiles intercepted before striking an impact point will also not count towards resolution.
This question is part of the issue decomposition on “Iran's Influence on Violent Non-State Actors.” For more, see INFER's explainer, issue reports, and other questions in this decomposition.
Question clarification
Issued on 11/29/23 10:19pm
For the purposes of this question, "missile" refers to guided missiles, like ballistic or cruise missiles. Unguided rockets and loitering munitions (i.e., "suicide drones") will not be considered.
For the purposes of this question, "missile" refers to guided missiles, like ballistic or cruise missiles. Unguided rockets and loitering munitions (i.e., "suicide drones") will not be considered.
Issued on 12/06/23 06:29pm
A missile that is successfully intercepted will not count towards resolution regardless of whether debris causes damage to the surrounding area.
A missile that is successfully intercepted will not count towards resolution regardless of whether debris causes damage to the surrounding area.
Resolution Notes
The Israel Defense Forces confirmed that a cruise missile struck an open area near Eilat on 18 March 2024. The Houthis claimed responsibility for this missile attack, and the missile was not intercepted by Israel's air defense system.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/in-first-idf-confirms-houthi-cruise-missile-hit-open-area-near-eilat-on-monday/
https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2024/03/22/houthi-missile-strikes-israeli-soil-for-first-time/
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | |
| No | 96% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 66 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 55 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 270 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 157 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
Scored Periods
| Scores for forecasts between | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|
| Nov 15, 2023 11:00PM UTC - Mar 18, 2024 04:00PM UTC | 4% |