Will Houthi rebels launch a missile that strikes within Israel in the next six months?

Started Nov 15, 2023 11:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 18, 2024 04:00PM UTC

In October 2023, a U.S. Navy warship intercepted missiles from Houthi forces in Yemen that were suspected of heading towards targets in Israel (CNN). Subsequent attacks have since been intercepted or fallen short (Reuters). Notably, Houthi forces launched a missile from Yemen that traveled at least 1,600 km, reportedly the longest distance traveled by a ballistic missile, before being intercepted by Israel’s Arrow air-defense system (Business Insider, Haaretz).

Resolution Criteria:  
This question will be resolved using credible, open-source news reports confirming that Houthi rebels launched a missile that struck an impact point within Israel. Missiles making impact inside Gaza or the West Bank will not count toward resolution. Missiles intercepted before striking an impact point will also not count towards resolution. 

This question is part of the issue decomposition on “Iran's Influence on Violent Non-State Actors.” For more, see INFER's explainer, issue reports, and other questions in this decomposition.

Question clarification
Issued on 11/29/23 10:19pm
For the purposes of this question, "missile" refers to guided missiles, like ballistic or cruise missiles. Unguided rockets and loitering munitions (i.e., "suicide drones") will not be considered.
Issued on 12/06/23 06:29pm
A missile that is successfully intercepted will not count towards resolution regardless of whether debris causes damage to the surrounding area.
Resolution Notes

The Israel Defense Forces confirmed that a cruise missile struck an open area near Eilat on 18 March 2024. The Houthis claimed responsibility for this missile attack, and the missile was not intercepted by Israel's air defense system.


Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 4%
No 96%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 66
Average for questions older than 6 months: 59
Number of Forecasts 270
Average for questions older than 6 months: 212
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Scored Periods

Scores for forecasts between Final Crowd Forecast
Nov 15, 2023 11:00PM UTC - Mar 18, 2024 04:00PM UTC 4%

Consensus Trend

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