Will Hezbollah launch a missile that impacts more than 10 kilometers into Israel over the next six months?
Started
Jan 26, 2024 08:00PM UTC
Closed Feb 26, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Feb 26, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Tags
Seasons
Hezbollah, a Lebanese Shia Islamist political party and militant group with ties to Hamas and Iran, is one of the most well-armed non-state groups in the region, with some experts estimating that their arsenal has anywhere from 100,000 to 150,000 rockets (Council on Foreign Relations, Reuters, Haaretz). Since the beginning of Israel’s war with Hamas, Hezbollah has exchanged cross-border fire with Israel but has limited their attacks to targets along the border between Israel and Lebanon (Wall Street Journal).
Resolution Criteria:
This question will be resolved using open-source news reports and/or statements from Israeli government or military officials (e.g., the IDF’s Hamas/Israel War Updates page).
In the event that a missile impacts within Israel but it is not clear whether it is 10 kilometers from the border with Lebanon, the INFER team will use Google Maps’ "Measure Distance” tool to determine the distance of the strike's location from the border. If the strike’s exact location is not known, but the city or neighborhood is known, the team will measure the distance between the estimated center of the city and the border with Lebanon. Missiles that are intercepted will not count towards resolution.
This question is part of the issue decomposition on “Iran's Influence on Violent Non-State Actors.” For more, see INFER's explainer, issue reports, and other questions in this decomposition.
Resolution Notes
On 26 February 2024, Hezbollah fired 60 rockets at Israel’s Nafah military base in the Golan Heights (Times of Israel, L’Orient Today). The Nafah base is over 20 km from the border with Lebanon.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 84% | |
| No | 16% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 49 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 55 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 91 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 157 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
Scored Periods
| Scores for forecasts between | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2024 08:00PM UTC - Feb 26, 2024 05:00PM UTC | 84% |