Trying to wrap-up the assessments so far, after the attack to the Iranian building (consulate?) in Damascus of April 2, widely attributed to the Israelis...
Which way things go from here depends, in part, on Iranian and Israeli calculations—and in part on sheer luck.
On Friday April 5, CNN was still reporting that an Iranian attack this week was largely inevitable, although it was not clear if the perceived threat was from Iran proper or if proxies were included.
Nevertheless, this assessment seems to have changed in the meanwhile; here is the Times of Israel, as of April 9:
Unnamed US intelligence sources told CNN, however, that Iran is unlikely to attack Israel directly out of fear of American and Israeli reprisal, and will instead urge its various proxies in the region to launch attacks on its behalf in the coming days.
Published on Monday night, the CNN report cast doubt on previous assessments by both Washington and Jerusalem that an attack by Iran was “inevitable.”
The Japan Times repeat the assessment today, April 11, that (emphasis mine):
The U.S. and its allies believe major missile or drone strikes by Iran or its proxies against military and government targets in Israel are imminent
but this is of little help for us here, where the difference between Iran or proxies is actually the difference between Yes and No, plus that, as @DKC has pointed out below, it is not clear from the resolution criteria if a drone strike will count (@FP@dante a clarification would arguably be a good idea here).
The latest update seems to be that president Biden affirmed explicitly that the US will stand side by side with Israel in case of an Iranian attack, something that is perceived as one more step toward deterrence of a direct Iranian attack to Israel:
Trying to wrap-up the assessments so far, after the attack to the Iranian building (consulate?) in Damascus of April 2, widely attributed to the Israelis...
Here is Fred Kaplan writing for Slate on April 8:
On Friday April 5, CNN was still reporting that an Iranian attack this week was largely inevitable, although it was not clear if the perceived threat was from Iran proper or if proxies were included.
Nevertheless, this assessment seems to have changed in the meanwhile; here is the Times of Israel, as of April 9:
Israel threatens to bomb nuke sites as Iran backs down from direct attack – report
The Japan Times repeat the assessment today, April 11, that (emphasis mine):
but this is of little help for us here, where the difference between Iran or proxies is actually the difference between Yes and No, plus that, as @DKC has pointed out below, it is not clear from the resolution criteria if a drone strike will count (@FP @dante a clarification would arguably be a good idea here).
The latest update seems to be that president Biden affirmed explicitly that the US will stand side by side with Israel in case of an Iranian attack, something that is perceived as one more step toward deterrence of a direct Iranian attack to Israel:
Scoop: Senior U.S. general to visit Israel to coordinate on Iran attack threat - Axios, Apr 11
All in all, although this is no longer a 1% (my forecast so far), it doesn't seem to me to be a much higher probability either...