Update, following the crowd
0.000423
Relative Brier Score
3
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 1 | 19 | 3 | 49 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 11 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Feb 29, 2024 03:30PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
(-10%)
Yes
Jan 29, 2024 to Jul 29, 2024
90%
(+10%)
No
Jan 29, 2024 to Jul 29, 2024
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jan 19, 2024 07:13PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
20%
(-50%)
Yes
Dec 19, 2023 to Jun 19, 2024
80%
(+50%)
No
Dec 19, 2023 to Jun 19, 2024
Recent Houthi attacks against vessels seem to have been randomly targeted.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-2%)
Yes
Time
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Jan 1, 2024 03:32PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
70%
Yes
Dec 1, 2023 to Jun 1, 2024
30%
No
Dec 1, 2023 to Jun 1, 2024
Why do you think you're right?
Ceasefire in Gaza has ended so things will escalate again
Files
Why might you be wrong?
An attack could fail or be stopped or prevented
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 7%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 7% but less than 12%
0%
(-6%)
More than or equal to 12% but less than 17%
100%
(+6%)
More than or equal to 17% but less than 22%
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 22%
Time
Files
time