Confirmed previous forecast
0.011352
Relative Brier Score
8
Forecasts
2
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 1 | 1 | 35 | 8 | 159 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 49 |
| Questions Forecasted | 1 | 1 | 15 | 6 | 40 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 26 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
71%
(0%)
Yes
29%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Apr 13, 2024 07:20PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
15%
(-15%)
Yes
Mar 13, 2024 to Sep 13, 2024
85%
(+15%)
No
Mar 13, 2024 to Sep 13, 2024
Why do you think you're right?
Moving more inline with the crowd, given the general lack of unrest in Iran.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
It looks like Iran is considering fining for women who don't follow hijab rules and deducting the money directly from their bank accounts: https://www.iranintl.com/en/202403110964
Given that women's rights were a major reason for previous protests, and legislative elections were just held on March 1st, people opposed to the law may feel like protest is their best or only option to effect change.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-2%)
Yes
unlikely in the next month
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
71%
Yes
29%
No
Why do you think you're right?
I think there's a good chance there's significant push for a ceasefire from the international community incoming, given the looming invasion of Rafah. Israel may take the opportunity to sign an agreement with minimal concessions to Hamas.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
It's possible the war drags on or Israel declares victory and withdraws unilaterally without an agreement, especially if they commit to not recognizing Hamas as a group to be negotiated with.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-2%)
Yes
dropping with time
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-9%)
Yes
97%
(+9%)
No
moving in line with crowd
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
13%
Yes
87%
No
This seems fairly unlikely to me. On the one hand, I think it's possible for them to close it, but the fact that they have a relatively strong presence in China for an American tech company, so I think they wouldn't want to jeopardize that relationship.
Files
@dante I agree with you, too. As menctioned before with @Wooster and @henrytolchard in their forecasts rationales, the Lab have been there for 25 years, conducting a flawless operation in Beijing, and my guess is that only a big dusruptive event could trigger a decission to leave China and keep working on Canada soil, where they do have another facility. Best regards.
Files