RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2027 05:00AM
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 30, 2025 12:45PM
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	5%	-2%	+0%
No	97%	95%	+2%	+0%

Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
15 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 30, 2025 12:45PM
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	0%	+0%	0%
No	100%	100%	+0%	0%

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 30, 2025 12:46PM
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	Jul 30, 2025 to Jan 30, 2027	Oct 30, 2025 12:46PM	4%	+1%	-2%
No	95%	Jul 30, 2025 to Jan 30, 2027	Oct 30, 2025 12:46PM	96%	-1%	+2%

Will the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China engage in a lethal confrontation by 30 September 2025?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 30, 2025 12:47PM
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
No	99%	99%	+0%	+0%

Will the European “Coalition of the Willing” deploy forces to Ukraine in 2025?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 30, 2025 12:47PM
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	2%	1%	+1%	+0%
No	98%	99%	-1%	+0%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
16 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 30, 2025 12:47PM
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Estonia	1%	3%	-2%	+0%
Latvia	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
Lithuania	1%	3%	-2%	+0%

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
16 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 1, 2025 01:31AM
(3 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	4%	Aug 1, 2025 to Feb 1, 2026	Sep 1, 2025 01:31AM	2%	+2%	-2%
No	96%	Aug 1, 2025 to Feb 1, 2026	Sep 1, 2025 01:31AM	98%	-2%	+2%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 1, 2025 01:31AM
(3 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Aug 1, 2025 to Feb 1, 2026	Sep 1, 2025 01:31AM	0%	+1%	+0%
No	99%	Aug 1, 2025 to Feb 1, 2026	Sep 1, 2025 01:31AM	100%	-1%	+0%

If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 1, 2025 01:32AM
(3 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 30 days	69%	65%	+4%	+1%
30 days	1%	8%	-7%	+0%
31-60 days	14%	7%	+7%	+0%
61-90 days	4%	6%	-2%	+0%
91 days or more	12%	14%	-2%	+0%

When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 1, 2025 01:32AM
(3 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025	3%	2%	+1%	+0%
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025	8%	8%	+0%	+0%
Not before 2026	89%	90%	-1%	+0%

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