INFER Public

Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between January 1 and June 30, 2021, inclusive?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 19, 2020 06:47PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the first two quarters (January 1 through June 30) of 2021?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 19, 2020 07:00PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $440 billion		Answer was incorrect
Between $440 billion and $490 billion, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than $490 billion but less than or equal to $540 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $590 billion		Answer was incorrect
More than $590 billion		Answer was correct

Will any private messages obtained in the July 15, 2020 Twitter hack be leaked to the public by November 2, 2020?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Oct 30, 2020 12:00PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 19, 2020 07:04PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will China add a U.S. company to its Unreliable Entities List by November 2, 2020?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Oct 28, 2020 01:00PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 19, 2020 07:05PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

What will the trade-to-GDP ratio for all OECD member countries be in the first two quarters of 2021?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 30, 2021 12:52AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 0.07		Answer was incorrect
Between 0.07 and 0.08		Answer was incorrect
More than 0.08 but less than or equal to 0.09		Answer was incorrect
More than 0.09 but less than or equal to 0.1		Answer was incorrect
More than 0.1		Answer was correct

What will be the opening price of GameStop stock on Tuesday, February 16?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Feb 16, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 04, 2021 09:08PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than $20		Answer was incorrect
Between $20 and $100, inclusive		Answer was correct
More than $100 but less than or equal to $300		Answer was incorrect
More than $300 but less than or equal to $500		Answer was incorrect
More than $500 but less than or equal to $1000		Answer was incorrect
More than $1000		Answer was incorrect

What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 18, 2021 06:21PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 15%		Answer was incorrect
Between 15% and 17%, inclusive		Answer was correct
More than 17% but less than or equal to 19%		Answer was incorrect
More than 19% but less than or equal to 21%		Answer was incorrect
More than 21%		Answer was incorrect

How many times will the Japanese Air Force respond to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft between April 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 17, 2021 11:47PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 675		Answer was correct
Between 675 and 750, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
More than 750 but less than or equal to 825		Answer was incorrect
More than 825 but less than or equal to 900		Answer was incorrect
More than 900		Answer was incorrect

When will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
May 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 18, 2021 11:50PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Before February 17, 2021		Answer was incorrect
Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021		Answer was incorrect
After November 17, 2021		Answer was correct

Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 31, 2021 08:55PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

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