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Hobbes

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2024 Pro Forecaster

Power Forecaster - Apr 2024

Questions Forecasted

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Forecasted Questions

[Experimental] Did COVID-19 originate in a lab in Wuhan, China?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2021 05:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 31, 2021 06:17PM UTC
(3 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	66%	35%	+31%	-3%

How will the Geopolitical Risk (GPR) Index change over the next three years?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Aug 24, 2022 11:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 17, 2021 07:43PM UTC
(2 years ago)

How politically polarized will U.S. citizens be in 2024?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 30, 2021 02:41PM UTC
(2 years ago)

What will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 01, 2022 04:21AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than -0.25	16%	14%	+2%	+0%
Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive	44%	31%	+13%	+0%
More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25	40%	33%	+7%	+0%
More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5	0%	17%	-17%	0%
More than 0.5	0%	4%	-4%	0%

Which tech company will be the first to reach a market cap of $5 trillion?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Feb 28, 2022 01:34PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 27, 2022 10:23PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Apple	70%	48%	+22%	+1%
Microsoft	10%	22%	-12%	+0%
Alphabet (Google)	0%	13%	-13%	+0%
Amazon	15%	10%	+5%	+0%
Tesla	0%	3%	-3%	+0%
Meta (Facebook)	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
Other	5%	2%	+3%	+0%

How will the percentage of U.S residents who are concerned about how the government uses their data change over the next three years?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 09, 2022 09:45AM UTC
(2 years ago)

How will the number of Defense Innovation Unit transitions change over the next three years?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 02, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 30, 2022 11:43PM UTC
(2 years ago)

How will the number of Japanese Air Force responses to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft change over the next three years?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 15, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 12, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Will Imran Khan be re-elected as prime minister following Pakistan’s upcoming general election?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Feb 09, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(3 months ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 30, 2024 11:50AM UTC
(3 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	0%	+0%	+0%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

As of Apr 30, 2024 02:01PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 31, 2024 02:01PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Mar 31, 2024 to Sep 30, 2024	Apr 30, 2024	1%	+1%	+0%