Loki

About:

I have some previous forecasting experience, and like maths, philosophy and effective altruism.
I run a monthly forecasting newsletter, available here: https://forecasting.substack.com/, and have written & maintain a forecast aggregator at https://metaforecast.org
Part of the legendary Samotsvey Forecasting team, which won the first two seasons overwhelmingly. Note: I will generally not be updating my forecasts, or participating in the 2022 season, on account of ARLIS paying too little.

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Forecasted Questions
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What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the second half of 2021?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jun 12, 2021 03:22PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than $470 billion Answer was incorrect
Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion Answer was incorrect
More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion Answer was incorrect
More than $680 billion Answer was correct

What percentage of software engineer job postings between July 1 and September 30, 2021, inclusive, will allow for remote work?

Forecast Count:
 8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jun 29, 2021 09:33PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 5.5% Answer was incorrect
More than 5.5% but less than or equal to 7% Answer was incorrect
Between 7% and 9.5%, inclusive Answer was incorrect
Between 9.5% and 12%, inclusive Answer was correct
More than 12% Answer was incorrect

How many U.S. job postings requiring machine learning skills will be published between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
 5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jun 29, 2021 10:04PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 70,000 Answer was incorrect
Between 70,000 and 90,000, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than 90,000 but less than or equal to 110,000 Answer was incorrect
More than 110,000 but less than or equal to 130,000 Answer was incorrect
More than 130,000 Answer was correct

Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
 5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jun 29, 2021 10:11PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

How much funding will U.S. tech startups raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
 5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jun 29, 2021 10:11PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than $13 billion Answer was incorrect
Between $13 billion and $17 billion, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than $17 billion but less than or equal to $21 billion Answer was incorrect
More than $21 billion but less than or equal to $25 billion Answer was incorrect
More than $25 billion Answer was correct

How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
 6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jun 29, 2021 10:14PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 26,000 Answer was correct
Between 26,000 and 28,000, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than 28,000 but less than or equal to 30,000 Answer was incorrect
More than 30,000 but less than or equal to 32,000 Answer was incorrect
More than 32,000 Answer was incorrect

How much funding will private U.S. tech companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?

Forecast Count:
 9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2021 03:59AM UTC
(3 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Jun 29, 2021 10:19PM UTC
(3 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than $40 billion Answer was incorrect
Between $40 billion and $60 billion, inclusive Answer was incorrect
More than $60 billion but less than or equal to $80 billion Answer was incorrect
More than $80 billion but less than or equal to $100 billion Answer was incorrect
More than $100 billion Answer was correct

How many members will the Alphabet Workers Union have by December 31, 2021?

Forecast Count:
 10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Aug 27, 2021 05:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Aug 16, 2021 05:07PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than 800 Answer was incorrect
Between 800 and 4,000 Answer was correct
More than 4,000 but less than or equal to 20,000 Answer was incorrect
More than 20,000 but less than or equal to 100,000 Answer was incorrect
More than 100,000 Answer was incorrect

Following El Salvador, will another country classify Bitcoin as legal tender by December 31, 2021?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Aug 17, 2021 01:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Aug 16, 2021 05:15PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect

Will a G7 country boycott the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics before January 1, 2022?

Forecast Count:
 6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Aug 27, 2021 05:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Aug 16, 2021 05:18PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes Answer was incorrect
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