INFER Public

Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2024 10:00PM UTC
(24 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024	Jul 30, 2024	7%	-4%	-2%
No	97%	Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024	Jul 30, 2024	93%	+4%	+2%

Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2024 10:02PM UTC
(24 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	3%	2%	+1%	-1%
No	97%	98%	-1%	+1%

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2024 10:10PM UTC
(24 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	25%	Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024	May 30, 2024	3%	+22%	-3%
No	75%	Apr 30, 2024 to Oct 30, 2024	May 30, 2024	97%	-22%	+3%

Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2024 10:14PM UTC
(24 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Kuwait	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
Oman	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
Qatar	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
Saudi Arabia	4%	5%	-1%	+0%
Tunisia	1%	1%	+0%	+0%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 05, 2024 05:45PM UTC
(19 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg	1%	0%	+1%	0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)	1%	4%	-3%	+0%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)	97%	95%	+2%	+0%

Will the price of the rare earth compound dysprosium oxide equal or exceed $1000 per kg before 1 July 2024?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 05, 2024 05:46PM UTC
(19 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	2%	-1%	+0%
No	99%	98%	+1%	+0%

Will Australia issue a Level 3 or Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan before 1 July 2024?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 05, 2024 05:46PM UTC
(19 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	0%	+1%	+0%
No	99%	100%	-1%	+0%

For each of the 5 quarters listed, what is the probability that North America’s share of TSMC’s net revenue will be less than 40%?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 05, 2024 05:46PM UTC
(19 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
2023 Q2	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
2023 Q3	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
2023 Q4	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
2024 Q1	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
2024 Q2	1%	1%	+0%	+0%

Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 05, 2024 05:50PM UTC
(19 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	70%	80%	-10%	+0%
No	30%	20%	+10%	+0%

Will 100 or more people be killed or injured in a Russian attack on the city of Kyiv before 1 June 2024?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(8 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
May 05, 2024 05:58PM UTC
(19 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	2%	-1%	+1%
No	99%	98%	+1%	-1%

YJAung

Yan Aung

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