Forecasted Questions
Will the O-RAN Alliance’s specifications be integrated into 3GPP before 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2027 05:00AM
(1 year from now)
Jan 1, 2027 05:00AM
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 5, 2025 12:42PM
(22 days ago)
Jul 5, 2025 12:42PM
(22 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications | 8% | 4% | +4% | -1% |
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP | 90% | 94% | -4% | +1% |
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP | 2% | 2% | +0% | +0% |
When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(5 months from now)
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 5, 2025 07:06PM
(21 days ago)
Jul 5, 2025 07:06PM
(21 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025 | 2% | 3% | -1% | +0% |
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025 | 7% | 8% | -1% | +0% |
Not before 2026 | 91% | 89% | +2% | +1% |
Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Aug 1, 2025 04:00AM
(5 days from now)
Aug 1, 2025 04:00AM
(5 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 5, 2025 07:10PM
(21 days ago)
Jul 5, 2025 07:10PM
(21 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(5 months from now)
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 5, 2025 07:13PM
(21 days ago)
Jul 5, 2025 07:13PM
(21 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 40% | Jul 5, 2025 to Jan 5, 2026 | Aug 5, 2025 07:13PM | 32% | +8% | -5% |
No | 60% | Jul 5, 2025 to Jan 5, 2026 | Aug 5, 2025 07:13PM | 68% | -8% | +5% |
Will the sub-Saharan African governments listed (Angola, Kenya, Ethiopia, Nigeria) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(2 months from now)
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 5, 2025 07:22PM
(21 days ago)
Jul 5, 2025 07:22PM
(21 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Angola | 3% | 2% | +1% | 0% |
Kenya | 4% | 2% | +2% | +0% |
Ethiopia | 4% | 7% | -3% | -1% |
Nigeria | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(5 months from now)
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 5, 2025 07:28PM
(21 days ago)
Jul 5, 2025 07:28PM
(21 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than 30 days | 85% | 64% | +21% | +2% |
30 days | 7% | 8% | -1% | -2% |
31-60 days | 2% | 7% | -5% | +0% |
61-90 days | 2% | 6% | -4% | +0% |
91 days or more | 4% | 15% | -11% | +0% |
What will be the risk index score for the perceived threat posed by Russia to Germany in the 2026 Munich Security Report?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(2 months from now)
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 5, 2025 07:28PM
(21 days ago)
Jul 5, 2025 07:28PM
(21 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than or equal to 49 | 3% | 0% | +3% | 0% |
Between 50 and 59, inclusive | 10% | 3% | +7% | -1% |
Between 60 and 69, inclusive | 20% | 30% | -10% | +0% |
Between 70 and 79, inclusive | 50% | 57% | -7% | +2% |
More than or equal to 80 | 17% | 9% | +8% | -1% |
What will be Germany’s net perception of Ukraine in the 2026 Munich Security Report?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(2 months from now)
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 5, 2025 07:28PM
(21 days ago)
Jul 5, 2025 07:28PM
(21 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than or equal to 9% | 3% | 0% | +3% | +0% |
Between 10% and 19%, inclusive | 15% | 4% | +11% | +0% |
Between 20% and 29%, inclusive | 51% | 81% | -30% | +0% |
Between 30% and 39%, inclusive | 24% | 14% | +10% | +0% |
More than or equal to 40% | 7% | 1% | +6% | +0% |
Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(5 months from now)
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 5, 2025 07:32PM
(21 days ago)
Jul 5, 2025 07:32PM
(21 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Togo | 16% | 9% | +7% | -1% |
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations | Answer was correct |
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(1 year from now)
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 5, 2025 07:32PM
(21 days ago)
Jul 5, 2025 07:32PM
(21 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Moldova | 1% | 8% | -7% | +0% |
Armenia | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
Georgia | 10% | 5% | +5% | +0% |
Kazakhstan | 1% | 2% | -1% | 0% |