9th
Accuracy Rank

YJAung

Brigitte de Graaf
Forecasted Questions

    Will the O-RAN Alliance’s specifications be integrated into 3GPP before 1 January 2027?

    Forecast Count:
    8 Forecasts
    Question Ends:
    Jan 1, 2027 05:00AM
    (1 year from now)
    Forecast Last Updated:
    Jul 5, 2025 12:42PM
    (22 days ago)
    Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
    Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications 8% 4%
    No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP 90% 94%
    No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP 2% 2%

    When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?

    Forecast Count:
    4 Forecasts
    Question Ends:
    Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
    (5 months from now)
    Forecast Last Updated:
    Jul 5, 2025 07:06PM
    (21 days ago)
    Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
    1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025 0% 0%
    1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025 0% 0%
    1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025 2% 3%
    1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025 7% 8%
    Not before 2026 91% 89%

    Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?

    Forecast Count:
    7 Forecasts
    Question Ends:
    Aug 1, 2025 04:00AM
    (5 days from now)
    Forecast Last Updated:
    Jul 5, 2025 07:10PM
    (21 days ago)
    Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
    Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana 1% 1%
    Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells 0% 1%
    Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo 0% 1%
    Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo 0% 0%

    Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?

    Forecast Count:
    6 Forecasts
    Question Ends:
    Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
    (5 months from now)
    Forecast Last Updated:
    Jul 5, 2025 07:13PM
    (21 days ago)
    Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
    Yes 40% Jul 5, 2025 to Jan 5, 2026 Aug 5, 2025 07:13PM 32%
    No 60% Jul 5, 2025 to Jan 5, 2026 Aug 5, 2025 07:13PM 68%

    Will the sub-Saharan African governments listed (Angola, Kenya, Ethiopia, Nigeria) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?

    Forecast Count:
    5 Forecasts
    Question Ends:
    Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
    (2 months from now)
    Forecast Last Updated:
    Jul 5, 2025 07:22PM
    (21 days ago)
    Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
    Angola 3% 2%
    Kenya 4% 2%
    Ethiopia 4% 7%
    Nigeria 1% 2%

    If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?

    Forecast Count:
    4 Forecasts
    Question Ends:
    Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
    (5 months from now)
    Forecast Last Updated:
    Jul 5, 2025 07:28PM
    (21 days ago)
    Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
    Less than 30 days 85% 64%
    30 days 7% 8%
    31-60 days 2% 7%
    61-90 days 2% 6%
    91 days or more 4% 15%

    What will be the risk index score for the perceived threat posed by Russia to Germany in the 2026 Munich Security Report?

    Forecast Count:
    7 Forecasts
    Question Ends:
    Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
    (2 months from now)
    Forecast Last Updated:
    Jul 5, 2025 07:28PM
    (21 days ago)
    Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
    Less than or equal to 49 3% 0%
    Between 50 and 59, inclusive 10% 3%
    Between 60 and 69, inclusive 20% 30%
    Between 70 and 79, inclusive 50% 57%
    More than or equal to 80 17% 9%

    What will be Germany’s net perception of Ukraine in the 2026 Munich Security Report?

    Forecast Count:
    7 Forecasts
    Question Ends:
    Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
    (2 months from now)
    Forecast Last Updated:
    Jul 5, 2025 07:28PM
    (21 days ago)
    Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
    Less than or equal to 9% 3% 0%
    Between 10% and 19%, inclusive 15% 4%
    Between 20% and 29%, inclusive 51% 81%
    Between 30% and 39%, inclusive 24% 14%
    More than or equal to 40% 7% 1%

    Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?

    Forecast Count:
    4 Forecasts
    Question Ends:
    Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
    (5 months from now)
    Forecast Last Updated:
    Jul 5, 2025 07:32PM
    (21 days ago)
    Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
    Togo 16% 9%
    Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations Answer was correct

    Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

    Forecast Count:
    4 Forecasts
    Question Ends:
    Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
    (1 year from now)
    Forecast Last Updated:
    Jul 5, 2025 07:32PM
    (21 days ago)
    Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
    Moldova 1% 8%
    Armenia 1% 2%
    Georgia 10% 5%
    Kazakhstan 1% 2%
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