RAND Forecasting Initiative

What will the average employment rate in OECD countries be in 2025?

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 17, 2025 07:39PM
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 62%	1%	0%	+1%	+0%
More than or equal to 62% but less than 66%	5%	0%	+5%	+0%
More than or equal to 66% but less than 70%	54%	26%	+28%	-18%
More than or equal to 70% but less than 74%	40%	73%	-33%	+18%
More than or equal to 74%	0%	0%	+0%	+0%

What will the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score for OpenAI’s highest scoring model be on 31 December 2025?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 31, 2025 05:00AM
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 17, 2025 07:49PM
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 70	0%	5%	-5%	-3%
Between 71 and 74, inclusive	2%	12%	-10%	+4%
Between 75 and 78, inclusive	16%	41%	-25%	+11%
Between 79 and 82, inclusive	32%	28%	+4%	-2%
More than or equal to 83	50%	15%	+35%	-10%

What will the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score for DeepSeek’s highest scoring model be on 31 December 2025?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 31, 2025 05:00AM
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 17, 2025 07:54PM
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 66	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
Between 67 and 70, inclusive	3%	16%	-13%	+2%
Between 71 and 74, inclusive	19%	41%	-22%	+13%
Between 75 and 78, inclusive	35%	30%	+5%	-2%
More than or equal to 79	43%	13%	+30%	-13%

Will the United States and Iran announce a new nuclear deal before 1 August 2025?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 1, 2025 04:00AM
(6 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 17, 2025 08:35PM
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	1%	-1%	-1%
No	100%	99%	+1%	+1%

By 30 September 2025, will the United States announce its intent to withdraw at least 4,500 troops from South Korea?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 03:59AM
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 21, 2025 06:19PM
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	17%	6%	+11%	-4%
No	83%	94%	-11%	+4%

How many incidents of political violence will occur in Gaza in August 2025?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Sep 1, 2025 04:00AM
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 21, 2025 06:33PM
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 500	2%	4%	-2%	-2%
Between 501 and 750, inclusive	4%	16%	-12%	+1%
Between 751 and 1000, inclusive	22%	37%	-15%	-4%
Between 1001 and 1250, inclusive	52%	36%	+16%	+7%
More than or equal to 1251	20%	7%	+13%	-1%

Will the U.S. national average gas price be equal to or above $3.600 for July 2025?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 1, 2025 04:00AM
(6 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 25, 2025 03:27PM
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	15%	2%	+13%	-17%
No	85%	98%	-13%	+17%

Will all NATO members agree to a defense spending target of 5% of GDP by 31 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jul 31, 2025 04:00AM
(5 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 26, 2025 08:40PM
(30 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	2%	-2%	-18%
No	100%	98%	+2%	+18%

Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2030 05:00AM
(4 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 5, 2025 10:38AM
(21 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	20%	7%	+13%	+0%
No	80%	93%	-13%	+0%

Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(5 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 5, 2025 12:41PM
(21 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	3%	+2%	+0%
No	95%	97%	-2%	+0%

YJAung

Brigitte de Graaf

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