Forecasted Questions
Will Australia issue a Level 3 or Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan before 1 July 2024?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 05, 2024 05:46PM UTC
(13 days ago)
May 05, 2024 05:46PM UTC
(13 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +0% |
For each of the 5 quarters listed, what is the probability that North America’s share of TSMC’s net revenue will be less than 40%?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 05, 2024 05:46PM UTC
(13 days ago)
May 05, 2024 05:46PM UTC
(13 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 Q2 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 2023 Q3 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 2023 Q4 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| 2024 Q1 | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| 2024 Q2 | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 05, 2024 05:50PM UTC
(13 days ago)
May 05, 2024 05:50PM UTC
(13 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 70% | 80% | -10% | +0% |
| No | 30% | 20% | +10% | +0% |
Will 100 or more people be killed or injured in a Russian attack on the city of Kyiv before 1 June 2024?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 05, 2024 05:58PM UTC
(13 days ago)
May 05, 2024 05:58PM UTC
(13 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 99% | 98% | +1% | +0% |
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 13, 2024 03:14AM UTC
(5 days ago)
May 13, 2024 03:14AM UTC
(5 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 30% | 55% | -25% | -1% |
| No | 70% | 45% | +25% | +1% |
Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 18, 2024 09:57AM UTC
(4 hours ago)
May 18, 2024 09:57AM UTC
(4 hours ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | May 18, 2024 to Nov 18, 2024 | Jun 18, 2024 | 3% | +2% | +0% |
| No | 95% | May 18, 2024 to Nov 18, 2024 | Jun 18, 2024 | 97% | -2% | +0% |
From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many battles and incidents of violence against civilians will ACLED record in Venezuela?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(14 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 18, 2024 09:58AM UTC
(4 hours ago)
May 18, 2024 09:58AM UTC
(4 hours ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 499 | 99% | 99% | +0% | +0% |
| Between 500 and 999, inclusive | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| Between 1000 and 1499, inclusive | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
| Between 1500 and 1999, inclusive | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
| More than or equal to 2000 | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |