Confirmed previous forecast
1.961099
Relative Brier Score
19
Forecasts
2
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 3 | 39 | 19 | 59 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 3 | 10 | 6 | 18 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 6 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
(0%)
Yes
70%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
60%
(0%)
Yes
40%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
60%
(0%)
Yes
40%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
There are only 14 hours to go for this to happen...
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
(+10%)
Yes
70%
(-10%)
No
Microsoft's decision to close or relocate its AI research lab to China will depend on a number of factors, including the geopolitical climate, national security concerns and market competition. It's too early to say with certainty what Microsoft will do, but the possibility of a closure or relocation cannot be ruled out.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(0%)
Yes
80%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
60%
Yes
40%
No
Huawei's Skepticism: Huawei has historically been critical of Open RAN initiatives, favoring their own proprietary solutions.
No Recent Signs of Engagement: In February 2024, Huawei dismissed rumors of supporting Open RAN.
Geopolitical Tensions: Some view O-RAN as a US-led effort against Huawei, creating a complex dynamic for collaboration.
However, there are some possibilities:
Change in Strategy: Huawei's stance could evolve, especially if Open RAN gains wider adoption.
Pressure from Market Forces: Operators seeking flexibility might nudge Huawei towards Open RAN compliance.
Overall, it's difficult to predict. Keep an eye on future announcements from Huawei or the O-RAN Alliance regarding:
Huawei joining the O-RAN Alliance
Development or testing of equipment based on O-RAN standards
Financial or resource commitments towards O-RAN initiatives
If any of these occur by October 1, 2025, the answer would be yes.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(0%)
Yes
80%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate the O-RAN Alliance specifications: If 3GPP incorporates the O-RAN specifications into the official 3GPP standards.
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to produce specifications independently of 3GPP: If O-RAN continues to develop specifications until January 1, 2027 without integration into 3GPP standards.
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop producing specifications without integrating into 3GPP: If O-RAN announces that they are no longer developing specifications, or if the organization is dissolved before January 1, 2027.