Forecasted Questions
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
15 Forecasts
15 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(1 year from now)
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 30, 2025 05:06PM
(28 days ago)
Jun 30, 2025 05:06PM
(28 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 1% | 3% | -2% | +0% |
| Latvia | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 1% | 3% | -2% | +0% |
Will the European “Coalition of the Willing” deploy forces to Ukraine in 2025?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(5 months from now)
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 30, 2025 05:11PM
(28 days ago)
Jun 30, 2025 05:11PM
(28 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +0% |
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
22 Forecasts
22 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(5 months from now)
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jun 30, 2025 05:11PM
(28 days ago)
Jun 30, 2025 05:11PM
(28 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | Jun 30, 2025 to Dec 30, 2025 | Jul 30, 2025 05:11PM | 7% | -7% | +5% |
| No | 100% | Jun 30, 2025 to Dec 30, 2025 | Jul 30, 2025 05:11PM | 93% | +7% | -5% |
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?
Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(5 months from now)
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 1, 2025 12:35AM
(28 days ago)
Jul 1, 2025 12:35AM
(28 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | Jul 1, 2025 to Jan 1, 2026 | Aug 1, 2025 12:35AM | 2% | +1% | -1% |
| No | 97% | Jul 1, 2025 to Jan 1, 2026 | Aug 1, 2025 12:35AM | 98% | -1% | +1% |
How many German-language disinformation cases originating in pro-Kremlin media will there be between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025?
Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(2 months from now)
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 11, 2025 05:33PM
(17 days ago)
Jul 11, 2025 05:33PM
(17 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 59 | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| Between 60 and 69, inclusive | 25% | 12% | +13% | -1% |
| Between 70 and 79, inclusive | 40% | 52% | -12% | +2% |
| Between 80 and 89, inclusive | 30% | 29% | +1% | -1% |
| More than or equal to 90 | 5% | 6% | -1% | +0% |
Will the EU import at least 15 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in any quarter of 2025?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(5 months from now)
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 11, 2025 05:47PM
(17 days ago)
Jul 11, 2025 05:47PM
(17 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | -1% |
| No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +1% |
Will all NATO members agree to a defense spending target of 5% of GDP by 31 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 31, 2025 04:00AM
(3 days from now)
Jul 31, 2025 04:00AM
(3 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 24, 2025 01:07PM
(4 days ago)
Jul 24, 2025 01:07PM
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 1% | -1% | -1% |
| No | 100% | 99% | +1% | +1% |
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts
11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(1 year from now)
Apr 1, 2027 04:00AM
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 24, 2025 01:07PM
(4 days ago)
Jul 24, 2025 01:07PM
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova | 8% | 8% | +0% | +0% |
| Armenia | 4% | 2% | +2% | +0% |
| Georgia | 4% | 5% | -1% | +0% |
| Kazakhstan | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
Will the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China engage in a lethal confrontation by 30 September 2025?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(2 months from now)
Oct 1, 2025 04:00AM
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 24, 2025 01:12PM
(4 days ago)
Jul 24, 2025 01:12PM
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| No | 100% | 99% | +1% | +0% |
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts
13 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(5 months from now)
Jan 1, 2026 05:00AM
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 24, 2025 01:13PM
(4 days ago)
Jul 24, 2025 01:13PM
(4 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | Jul 24, 2025 to Jan 24, 2026 | Aug 24, 2025 01:13PM | 1% | -1% | -2% |
| No | 100% | Jul 24, 2025 to Jan 24, 2026 | Aug 24, 2025 01:13PM | 99% | +1% | +2% |