Confirmed previous forecast
0.062898
Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
Scored Questions
179
Forecasts
7
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 39 | 349 | 179 | 1301 |
| Comments | 0 | 12 | 72 | 64 | 101 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 39 | 77 | 52 | 215 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 36 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
New Badge
Star Commenter - Jun 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Will the U.S. federal government enact legislation that substantively regulates or authorizes regulation of artificial intelligence systems or their development before 1 January 2026?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
3%
(0%)
Yes
97%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
81%
(0%)
Yes
19%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 500
14%
(0%)
Between 501 and 750, inclusive
46%
(0%)
Between 751 and 1000, inclusive
36%
(0%)
Between 1001 and 1250, inclusive
4%
(0%)
More than or equal to 1251
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
99%
No
Why do you think you're right?
If we take the data of when conflicts have happened between India and China, it has been very low, and as of the situation now, nothing much enforces it to happen again. The timeline specified is too short. Recent meetings between the 2 nations have not given any indication to something of this dramatic effect to take place.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Some unexpected political change, like it happened with Pakistan recently, and China comes in to support.
Files