73rd
Accuracy Rank

Revmag

About:
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1.641419

Relative Brier Score

888

Forecasts

25

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 6 559 114 888
Comments 0 0 2 0 19
Questions Forecasted 0 6 95 40 157
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 21 3 25
 Definitions


New Badge
Revmag
earned a new badge:

Power Forecaster - Apr 2024

Earned for making 20+ forecasts in a month.
New Prediction
Revmag
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
20% (+16%)
Yes
Apr 26, 2024 to Oct 26, 2024
80% (-16%)
No
Apr 26, 2024 to Oct 26, 2024

They might want to demonstrate their military might, and with the recent situation in Iran, things might escalate further. Iran-Isreal relations are a bit scrappy now, so they

might not want to involve more entropy here. The odds are comparatively higher than the previous ones, and Isreal demonstrates that it can happen, but the question again is, is this

the best strategic thing it can do, and shift focus?

Files
New Prediction
Revmag
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
31% (+25%)
Yes
Apr 26, 2024 to Apr 26, 2025
69% (-25%)
No
Apr 26, 2024 to Apr 26, 2025

They might want to demonstrate their military might, and with the recent situation in Iran, things might escalate further. Iran-Isreal relations are a bit scrappy now, so they

might not want to involve more entropy here. The odds are comparatively higher than the previous ones, and Isreal demonstrates that it can happen, but the question again is, is this

the best strategic thing it can do, and shift focus?

Files
New Prediction
Revmag
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
Apr 26, 2024 to Oct 26, 2024
100% (0%)
No
Apr 26, 2024 to Oct 26, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Revmag
made their 4th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Yes
100% (0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Revmag
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5% (0%)
Yes
Apr 26, 2024 to May 26, 2024
95% (0%)
No
Apr 26, 2024 to May 26, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Revmag
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5% (0%)
Yes
Apr 26, 2024 to Apr 26, 2025
95% (0%)
No
Apr 26, 2024 to Apr 26, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction

Rejection by Hamas + recent attacks, less chance of this happening

Files
New Prediction

Bit ambiguous, but passage of time indicates this, though this is bound to happen in the future, but <2 months seem a bit less

Files
New Prediction
Revmag
made their 7th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
22% (+20%)
Yes
Apr 16, 2024 to Oct 16, 2024

After the attack, it might so happen, and Israel too have stated that they will seek revenge in light of recent events

Files
Files
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