Forecasted Questions
Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 31, 2024 05:01PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Jan 31, 2024 05:01PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 10% | 4% | +6% | -1% |
No | 90% | 96% | -6% | +1% |
Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 31, 2024 05:01PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Jan 31, 2024 05:01PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 1% | Jan 31, 2024 to Jul 31, 2024 | Apr 30, 2024 | 0% | +1% | -1% |
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 31, 2024 05:04PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Jan 31, 2024 05:04PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 35% | 55% | -20% | +9% |
No | 65% | 45% | +20% | -9% |
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
May 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(3 days from now)
May 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(3 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 31, 2024 05:07PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Jan 31, 2024 05:07PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 2% | 0% | +2% | -3% |