Forecasted Questions
How will the Geopolitical Risk (GPR) Index change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Aug 24, 2022 11:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Aug 24, 2022 11:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 31, 2021 04:11PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Aug 31, 2021 04:11PM UTC
(2 years ago)
How politically polarized will U.S. citizens be in 2024?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 15, 2021 03:42PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Sep 15, 2021 03:42PM UTC
(2 years ago)
What will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 07, 2021 01:31AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Dec 07, 2021 01:31AM UTC
(2 years ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than -0.25 | 5% | 14% | -9% | +0% |
| Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive | 15% | 31% | -16% | +0% |
| More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25 | 36% | 33% | +3% | +1% |
| More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5 | 36% | 17% | +19% | +0% |
| More than 0.5 | 8% | 4% | +4% | +0% |
Which company will be the largest semiconductor company by sales revenue in 2022?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Nov 01, 2022 04:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Nov 01, 2022 04:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 24, 2022 02:49AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Oct 24, 2022 02:49AM UTC
(1 year ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intel | 17% | 16% | +1% | -6% |
| Samsung | 80% | 53% | +27% | -13% |
| TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) | 3% | 30% | -27% | +18% |
| Other | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
Will Houthi rebels execute an attack against an Israeli civil or military vessel in the next 6 months?
As of Feb 28, 2024 02:10AM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 28, 2024 02:10AM UTC
(4 months ago)
Jan 28, 2024 02:10AM UTC
(4 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | Jan 28, 2024 to Jul 28, 2024 | Feb 28, 2024 | 18% | -13% | +8% |
| No | 95% | Jan 28, 2024 to Jul 28, 2024 | Feb 28, 2024 | 82% | +13% | -8% |
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?
As of Mar 27, 2024 07:09PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 27, 2024 07:09PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Feb 27, 2024 07:09PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | Feb 27, 2024 to Aug 27, 2024 | Mar 27, 2024 | 4% | -4% | +2% |
| No | 100% | Feb 27, 2024 to Aug 27, 2024 | Mar 27, 2024 | 96% | +4% | -2% |
Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?
As of Apr 29, 2024 11:07PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 29, 2024 11:07PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Mar 29, 2024 11:07PM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | Mar 29, 2024 to Sep 29, 2024 | Apr 29, 2024 | 3% | -3% | +3% |
| No | 100% | Mar 29, 2024 to Sep 29, 2024 | Apr 29, 2024 | 97% | +3% | -3% |
Will Iraq return its ambassador to Iran in the next month?
As of Apr 29, 2024 11:10PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 29, 2024 11:10PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Mar 29, 2024 11:10PM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 50% | Mar 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2024 | Apr 29, 2024 | 6% | +44% | -3% |
| No | 50% | Mar 29, 2024 to Apr 29, 2024 | Apr 29, 2024 | 94% | -44% | +3% |
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months?
As of Apr 30, 2024 08:23PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 31, 2024 08:23PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Mar 31, 2024 08:23PM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | Mar 31, 2024 to Sep 30, 2024 | Apr 30, 2024 | 16% | -11% | +5% |
| No | 95% | Mar 31, 2024 to Sep 30, 2024 | Apr 30, 2024 | 84% | +11% | -5% |