INFER Public

Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 28, 2024 02:11PM UTC
(3 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	3%	+2%	-5%
No	95%	97%	-2%	+5%

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 15, 2024 11:53PM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	Feb 15, 2024 to Aug 15, 2024	May 15, 2024	0%	+0%	-1%

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
May 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(3 days from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 20, 2024 02:52PM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	0%	+0%	-3%

Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 27, 2024 07:57PM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Kuwait	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
Oman	0%	2%	-2%	-1%
Qatar	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
Saudi Arabia	0%	5%	-5%	-1%
Tunisia	0%	1%	-1%	-1%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 27, 2024 09:28PM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg	0%	0%	+0%	0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)	0%	1%	-1%	+1%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)	16%	4%	+12%	+1%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)	84%	95%	-11%	-2%

Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 20, 2024 02:34AM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	0%	5%	-5%	+0%
No	100%	95%	+5%	+0%

By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 25, 2024 03:25PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	13%	8%	+5%	+1%
No	87%	92%	-5%	-1%

Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 25, 2024 03:28PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	3%	+2%	+0%
No	95%	97%	-2%	+0%

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 25, 2024 03:29PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	4%	+1%	-1%
No	95%	96%	-1%	+1%

Will Iran be impacted by a cyberattack targeting critical infrastructure between 27 February 2024 and 1 March 2025?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 29, 2024 04:08PM UTC
(29 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	75%	81%	-6%	+4%
No	25%	19%	+6%	-4%

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