Forecasted Questions
Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2024 11:24PM UTC
(11 days ago)
Apr 30, 2024 11:24PM UTC
(11 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kharkiv | 31% | 38% | -7% | +16% |
| Kyiv | 0% | 1% | -1% | -2% |
| Odesa | 0% | 3% | -3% | -1% |
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2024 11:28PM UTC
(11 days ago)
Apr 30, 2024 11:28PM UTC
(11 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 11% | 8% | +3% | -1% |
| No | 89% | 92% | -3% | +1% |
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 30, 2024 11:36PM UTC
(11 days ago)
Apr 30, 2024 11:36PM UTC
(11 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 13% | Apr 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 | Jul 30, 2024 | 13% | +0% | -2% |
| No | 87% | Apr 30, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025 | Jul 30, 2024 | 87% | +0% | +2% |