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New Prediction
Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-15%)
Yes
95%
(+15%)
No
uted to the unexpected result? Tip:
Iran has no reason to leave the accord. It's not really following it anywayWhy might you be wrong? (optional)
If your forecast turns out to be wrong, why? What factors may have contributed to the unexpected result? Tip:Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Probability
Answer
3%
(-12%)
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
We are coming on the expiration date with little chance we will see new legislation
Files
Why might you be wrong?
A Suprise
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-1%)
Yes
He is in jail
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(0%)
Yes
80%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
