Forecasted Questions
[Experimental] Did COVID-19 originate in a lab in Wuhan, China?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2021 05:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Oct 01, 2021 05:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 31, 2021 04:18PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Aug 31, 2021 04:18PM UTC
(2 years ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 25% | 35% | -10% | -3% |
Which tech company will be the first to reach a market cap of $5 trillion?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Feb 28, 2022 01:34PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Feb 28, 2022 01:34PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 05, 2022 06:38AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Feb 05, 2022 06:38AM UTC
(2 years ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apple | 20% | 48% | -28% | +13% |
| Microsoft | 10% | 22% | -12% | +5% |
| Alphabet (Google) | 25% | 13% | +12% | -1% |
| Amazon | 30% | 10% | +20% | -6% |
| Tesla | 10% | 3% | +7% | -4% |
| Meta (Facebook) | 2% | 1% | +1% | -5% |
| Other | 3% | 2% | +1% | -1% |
What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2022?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Apr 01, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 07, 2022 06:21AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Mar 07, 2022 06:21AM UTC
(2 years ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 14% | 5% | 3% | +2% | -1% |
| Between 14% and 16%, inclusive | 30% | 12% | +18% | -2% |
| More than 16% but less than or equal to 18% | 40% | 31% | +9% | -4% |
| More than 18% but less than or equal to 20% | 20% | 40% | -20% | +4% |
| More than 20% | 5% | 14% | -9% | +3% |
How will the percentage of U.S residents who are concerned about how the government uses their data change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 26, 2022 06:25AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Mar 26, 2022 06:25AM UTC
(2 years ago)