INFER Public

Will China send a daily record number of military planes into Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) next month?

As of Jan 8, 2022 03:04PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.

Question Ends:
Dec 31, 2021 11:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 08, 2021 03:04PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will Russia invade Ukraine by December 31, 2022?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 31, 2022 11:59PM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 26, 2022 12:56PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was correct

When will the end of day closing value for the Russian Ruble against the US Dollar drop below 75 Rubles to 1 USD?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2022 04:00AM UTC
(2 years ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 27, 2022 06:08PM UTC
(2 years ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Before 1 April 2022		Answer was incorrect
Between 1 April 2022 and 30 April 2022, inclusive		Answer was correct
Between 1 May 2022 and 31 May 2022, inclusive		Answer was incorrect
Not before 1 June 2022		Answer was incorrect

Will Jair Bolsonaro formally contest the results of the 2022 Brazilian presidential election by 31 December 2022?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 02, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 24, 2022 10:16PM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was correct

In 2022, will the Shanghai Micro Electronics Equipment Co. list a new lithography machine as an available product on its website?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Nov 01, 2022 04:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 25, 2022 03:03PM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

What percentage of contributions to Github's "very high impact" AI projects will be from China in 2022?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 28, 2022 04:25PM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than 22%		Answer was correct
More than or equal to 22% but less than 27%		Answer was incorrect
More than or equal to 27%		Answer was incorrect

Will China launch more orbital rockets than the U.S. in January 2023?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 26, 2023 04:00PM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will the European Union’s economic sanctions on Russia expire or be revoked for whole sectors or industries by 31 January 2023?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 28, 2023 02:07PM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 March 2023?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Mar 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 16, 2023 07:52PM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month?

As of Mar 19, 2023 02:26PM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Mar 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)

Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 19, 2023 02:26PM UTC
(1 year ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes		Answer was incorrect

NukePirate

About: