Will the European Union’s economic sanctions on Russia expire or be revoked for whole sectors or industries by 31 January 2023?

Started Dec 01, 2022 08:00PM UTC
Closed Feb 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC

The European Union has passed eight packages of economic and individual sanctions on Russia and on individuals involved the invasion of Ukraine (European Council). The economic sanctions, which have been extended multiple times since the first round of restrictive measures was passed in 2014, are set to expire on 31 January 2023 (European Council). While some are calling for a ninth package of sanctions (Politico), others worry that European support of Ukraine may wane as the war drags on (Atlantic Council, NYT).


Resolution Criteria:

Question will resolve as “yes” if sanctions from entire sectors (e.g., financial, energy, defense, transport, raw materials, services) are revoked or if sanctions on entire industries are revoked (e.g., “prohibition of imports from Russia of coal” or “SWIFT ban for certain Belarusan or Russian Banks”), or if any sector or industry sanctions are left to expire on 31 Jan 2023. See the “Economic Sanctions” section of the European Council’s Restrictive Measures Document for the sectors (highlighted in bold) and industries (delineated by bullets under the bold sections) currently covered. Small or administrative revisions to existing sanctions that do not impact a whole industry/sector will not count (e.g., lifting sanctions from one Russian bank but leaving them in place on others).


Question clarification
Issued on 12/21/22 04:03pm
A sanction must be fully lifted for this question to resolve as "yes". If a sanction is only partially lifted such that sanctions of that type against that industry still exist (e.g., lightening some restrictions on coal imports, but keeping broader "prohibitions on imports from Russia of coal"), this would be considered a change to existing sanctions and the question would resolve "no" if no other sanctions are revoked or left to expire.
Resolution Notes

Sanctions were not revoked or left to expire, as the European Union instead prolonged sanctions until 31 July 2023: https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2023/01/27/russia-eu-prolongs-economic-sanctions-over-russia-s-military-aggression-against-ukraine/

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1.05%
No 98.95%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 126
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 44
Number of Forecasts 236
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 84
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.002
2.
-0.001
3.
-0.001
4.
-0.001
5.
-0.001

Consensus Trend

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