Forecasted Questions
Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months?
As of Jun 25, 2022 02:53AM all of your forecasts have expired. You don't have an active forecast in this question.
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Sep 01, 2022 11:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Sep 01, 2022 11:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 25, 2022 02:53AM UTC
(2 years ago)
May 25, 2022 02:53AM UTC
(2 years ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | Answer was incorrect | |||||
Will the U.S. House Subcommittee on Consumer Protection and Commerce vote on the Algorithmic Accountability Act of 2022 before 31 July 2022?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jul 23, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Jul 23, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 25, 2022 02:56AM UTC
(2 years ago)
May 25, 2022 02:56AM UTC
(2 years ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes, and the bill will be favorably reported to the full committee | Answer was incorrect | |||
| Yes, but the bill will not be favorably reported to the full committee | Answer was incorrect | |||
| No, a vote will not occur | Answer was correct | |||
Will the U.S. Senate vote on the American Innovation and Choice Online Act before 30 July 2022?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jul 30, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Jul 30, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 21, 2022 10:13PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Jul 21, 2022 10:13PM UTC
(2 years ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes, and it will pass | Answer was incorrect | |||
| Yes, and it will not pass | Answer was incorrect | |||
| No | Answer was correct | |||
Will China announce an end to its zero Covid policy by 31 December 2022?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 14, 2022 07:06PM UTC
(1 year ago)
Nov 14, 2022 07:06PM UTC
(1 year ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | Answer was incorrect | |||
Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring in Georgia or Moldova before 1 April 2023?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2023 03:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Apr 01, 2023 03:59AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 01, 2023 01:39AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Feb 01, 2023 01:39AM UTC
(1 year ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes, 25+ in Georgia, but not in Moldova | Answer was incorrect | |||
| Yes, 25+ in Moldova, but not in Georgia | Answer was incorrect | |||
| Yes, 25+ in Georgia and 25+ in Moldova | Answer was incorrect | |||
| No, 25+ in neither Georgia nor Moldova | Answer was correct | |||
Will any of the following countries announce on or before 31 March 2023 that they are joining the United States’ chip export ban against China?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 01, 2023 01:40AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Feb 01, 2023 01:40AM UTC
(1 year ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Japan | Answer was correct | |||
| The Netherlands | Answer was correct | |||
| South Korea | Answer was incorrect | |||
| Any other country not listed | Answer was incorrect | |||