Confirmed previous forecast
No Scores Yet
Relative Brier Score
2
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes, 25+ in Georgia, but not in Moldova
20%
(0%)
Yes, 25+ in Moldova, but not in Georgia
4%
(0%)
Yes, 25+ in Georgia and 25+ in Moldova
75%
(0%)
No, 25+ in neither Georgia nor Moldova
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
President Xi just reinforced it at the 20th Party Congress, so unlikely h'ed reverse himself.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
There may be significant economic justification to overturn the policy!
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
8%
Less than 5%
22%
More than or equal to 5% but less than 7%
70%
More than or equal to 7%
Why do you think you're right?
It seems more likely than not that China's Made in China 2025 initiative will focus on building more AI and that it's translated to Chinese innovation.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Zero COVID policies and China being a bit behind may prevent a high percentage of patents from being true.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
$0
7%
More than $0 but less than $82 million
71%
Between $82 million and $87 million, inclusive
22%
More than $87 million
Why do you think you're right?
I think there's a pretty probable chance that Congress will appropriate money between 82-87 million since they'll likely aim to compromise.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I may be wrong if the House/Senate ultimately decide to make cuts or grow this funding.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
85%
Yes, and it will pass
5%
Yes, and it will not pass
10%
No
There is now momentum towards passing this bill.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
It's more likely that the Netherlands rather than Japan and Korea would want to join the US and signal they do not want China to be exporting chips.
Why might you be wrong?
It's possible that Japan/South Korea and many other countries join the US in a broader coalition in a stand against China.