Forecasted Questions
Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 19, 2024 08:08PM UTC
(12 days ago)
Apr 19, 2024 08:08PM UTC
(12 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 100% | 14% | +86% | -1% |
| No | 0% | 86% | -86% | +1% |
From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many fatalities due to gang violence will ACLED record in El Salvador?
Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts
11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 19, 2024 08:09PM UTC
(12 days ago)
Apr 19, 2024 08:09PM UTC
(12 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 49 | 30% | 94% | -64% | +5% |
| Between 50 and 99, inclusive | 51% | 6% | +45% | -5% |
| Between 100 and 149, inclusive | 19% | 0% | +19% | +0% |
| Between 150 and 199, inclusive | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| More than or equal to 200 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many battles and incidents of violence against civilians will ACLED record in Venezuela?
Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts
11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 19, 2024 08:09PM UTC
(12 days ago)
Apr 19, 2024 08:09PM UTC
(12 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 499 | 100% | 99% | +1% | +3% |
| Between 500 and 999, inclusive | 0% | 1% | -1% | -3% |
| Between 1000 and 1499, inclusive | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| Between 1500 and 1999, inclusive | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
| More than or equal to 2000 | 0% | 0% | +0% | 0% |
From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many protests and riots will ACLED record in Colombia?
Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts
11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 19, 2024 08:09PM UTC
(12 days ago)
Apr 19, 2024 08:09PM UTC
(12 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than or equal to 749 | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| Between 750 and 1499, inclusive | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| Between 1500 and 2249, inclusive | 70% | 5% | +65% | -5% |
| Between 2250 and 2999, inclusive | 30% | 94% | -64% | +5% |
| More than or equal to 3000 | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |