fist

Tim
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0.198611

Relative Brier Score

17

Forecasts

18

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
 

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Forecasts 0 0 0 0 18
Comments 0 0 0 0 7
Questions Forecasted 0 0 0 0 7
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 0 0 18
 Definitions
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earned a new badge:

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New Prediction

Prev years release (Osprey) still not available. 

Note: Osprey is now listed on the Acess Plans page, but as "coming soon"

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New Prediction

It's mid-Feb 2023, and 2022's Osprey system (433 qubits) is not available on IBM's Access Plans. Incremental update towards Condor (>1k qubit system due for completion this year) not being on an Access Plan by the end of 2023. I'll continue making similarly sized updates with each month that Osprey doesn't show up. 

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New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
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fist
earned a new badge:

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New Prediction

Estimate is now < 0.5% based on my previous methodology

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New Prediction
Not enough time left
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New Prediction
fist
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
96% (+36%)
Japan
98% (+18%)
The Netherlands
40% (+10%)
South Korea
30% (+10%)
Any other country not listed

Reports of trilateral agreement with Japan/Netherlands reached yesterday. Official announcement seems imminent

https://www.ft.com/content/baa27f42-0557-4377-839b-a4f4524cfa20

With more multilateral agreement, likely higher chance other countries join? Bumping up SK / other countries forecasts on this basis, but pretty uncertain.

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New Prediction
1 month left, Vlad's still kickin
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New Prediction

Passage of time, 1 more launch for the US

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