Confirmed previous forecast
0.048491
Relative Brier Score
11
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 125 | 11 | 126 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 23 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 15 | 5 | 15 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 24 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Mar 22, 2024 06:12PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
Feb 22, 2024 to Aug 22, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
95%
(0%)
Yes
5%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
(-20%)
Yes
50%
(+20%)
No
Scaling downward as I'm not seeing enough movement on digital provenance adoption.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Yes
95%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Yes
90%
No
Government pressure and tensions between the U.S. and China will result in Microsoft closing MRA.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Feb 24, 2024 05:52PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
Jan 24, 2024 to Jul 24, 2024
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
95%
(0%)
Yes
5%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
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