Updating based on changing information
-0.055021
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Definitions |
New Prediction
New Badge
Active Forecaster
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-5%)
United States
30%
(-5%)
EU
60%
(+20%)
China
5%
(-10%)
United Kingdom
0%
(0%)
None of the above
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
Less than or equal to 74
25%
Between 75 and 99, inclusive
65%
More than or equal to 100
Forecasting based on current predictions about the first few days of June.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 200 million
0%
(0%)
More than 200 million but less than 250 million
0%
(0%)
Between 250 million and 300 million, inclusive
100%
(0%)
More than 300 million
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
Active Forecaster
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
United States
35%
(0%)
EU
40%
(0%)
China
15%
(0%)
United Kingdom
0%
(0%)
None of the above
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
Active Forecaster
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than or equal to 200 million
0%
More than 200 million but less than 250 million
0%
Between 250 million and 300 million, inclusive
100%
More than 300 million
Current funding already surpasses 300 million
Files
Based on observation