There is currently little available information to indicate that it will happen in the next day, and thus it seems like it will happen later.
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Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
Yes, and it will pass
10%
Yes, and it will not pass
75%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
It's possible that I missed a piece of information.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
It seems as though any action is unlikely at this point as they have not signalled intention to act recently.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(-50%)
China
0%
(-30%)
EU
90%
(+80%)
United States
0%
(0%)
India
0%
(0%)
Other
Why do you think you're right?
China's rapid increase in the number of total AI papers over the last five years compared to the other nations and the fact that in 2021 they have become the highest producer of AI papers indicates that China is very likely to be the highest producer in 2022. As America is currently the second highest producer and the EU stayed roughly the same in number of publications year on year America will likely be the second highest producer.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I might be wrong in the case that the US suddenly produces a lot of novel research all in one go approaching the end of the year. It is also possible that the EU suddenly does the same thing but this is much less likely.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
Yes
It has almost never dropped bellow even 0.99 and thus a drop as massive as 0.05 seems exceedingly unlikely.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
27%
Less than 5
59%
Between 5 and 9, inclusive
9%
Between 10 and 14, inclusive
3%
Between 15 and 19, inclusive
2%
More than or equal to 20
Estimating from previous months and based on the fact that the technology is improving all the time I predict it to be the same or less in June than in the months of April and May
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
25%
Yes
His power base is still very strong in Russia, and even if Russia was to have a major collapse it would not be enough to disrupt his dictatorship because he would leave an enormous power vacuum in Russia with a large number of dangerous and powerful people fighting to fill it, which is a situation most of the Russian elites want to avoid.
Files
It seems very unlikely to be happening at this stage.