The New Arab reported on Feb 13 that the Iraqi ambassador was due to be reinstated shortly. Also, the Iranian ambassador and Iraqi PM are in discussion according to the Tehran Times.
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New Prediction
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Mar 27, 2024 06:53PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
95%
Yes
Feb 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2024
5%
No
Feb 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2024
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Only one source reports on the return of the Iraqi ambassador with no other easily available sources confirming the claim or announcing an official reinstatement.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Less than 40
80%
(0%)
More than or equal to 40 but less than 60
10%
(0%)
More than or equal to 60 but less than 80
5%
(0%)
More than or equal to 80 but less than 100
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 100
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
18%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
- already passed many symbolic occasions to do tests, the next opportune period seems to be late 2023/early 2024
- might not have enough refined uranium/plutonium
- relatively slow ramping up of activity at the test site despite experts' predictions
Files
Why might you be wrong?
- increase in missile tests
- rising tensions with other countries
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Yes
Why do you think you're right?
- Historically China has tied or launched fewer satellites than the USA in January
- In 2022, China only surpassed the USA in terms of satellite launches for 2 months
- SpaceX wants to break the orbital rocket launch record
Files
Why might you be wrong?
- SpaceX may not be as effective as it intends
- China plans to increase its number of orbital rocket launches this year compared to 2022 and may overall overtake the USA
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
Less than 40
80%
More than or equal to 40 but less than 60
10%
More than or equal to 60 but less than 80
5%
More than or equal to 80 but less than 100
0%
More than or equal to 100
Why do you think you're right?
Within the ballpark of the number that competed last year
Files
Why might you be wrong?
It is unclear to me if interest and initiative in the sciences is on the decline or upswing in the USA
Files
New Badge
Fake news article discounts previous evidence for the return of the ambassador. Continued lack of action might signal unwillingness to cooperate.