The New Arab reported on Feb 13 that the Iraqi ambassador was due to be reinstated shortly. Also, the Iranian ambassador and Iraqi PM are in discussion according to the Tehran Times.
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Active Forecaster
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Why might you be wrong?
Only one source reports on the return of the Iraqi ambassador with no other easily available sources confirming the claim or announcing an official reinstatement.
Active Forecaster
Why do you think you're right?
- already passed many symbolic occasions to do tests, the next opportune period seems to be late 2023/early 2024
- might not have enough refined uranium/plutonium
- relatively slow ramping up of activity at the test site despite experts' predictions
Why might you be wrong?
- increase in missile tests
- rising tensions with other countries
Active Forecaster
Why do you think you're right?
- Historically China has tied or launched fewer satellites than the USA in January
- In 2022, China only surpassed the USA in terms of satellite launches for 2 months
- SpaceX wants to break the orbital rocket launch record
Why might you be wrong?
- SpaceX may not be as effective as it intends
- China plans to increase its number of orbital rocket launches this year compared to 2022 and may overall overtake the USA
Why do you think you're right?
Within the ballpark of the number that competed last year
Why might you be wrong?
It is unclear to me if interest and initiative in the sciences is on the decline or upswing in the USA
Fake news article discounts previous evidence for the return of the ambassador. Continued lack of action might signal unwillingness to cooperate.