Forecasted Questions
[Experimental] Did COVID-19 originate in a lab in Wuhan, China?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2021 05:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Oct 01, 2021 05:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 29, 2021 08:42PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Sep 29, 2021 08:42PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 40% | 35% | +5% | +1% |
How will the Geopolitical Risk (GPR) Index change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Aug 24, 2022 11:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Aug 24, 2022 11:00AM UTC
(1 year ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 08, 2021 02:41PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Oct 08, 2021 02:41PM UTC
(2 years ago)
What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2022?
Forecast Count:
13 Forecasts
13 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Nov 15, 2021 11:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Nov 15, 2021 11:59PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 15, 2021 03:19PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Nov 15, 2021 03:19PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than 2% | 5% | 7% | -2% | 0% |
Between 2% and 4%, inclusive | 25% | 23% | +2% | 0% |
More than 4% but less than or equal to 6% | 45% | 33% | +12% | 0% |
More than 6% but less than or equal to 8% | 20% | 21% | -1% | 0% |
More than 8% | 5% | 16% | -11% | 0% |
What will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?
Forecast Count:
19 Forecasts
19 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 16, 2021 07:06PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Dec 16, 2021 07:06PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than -0.25 | 10% | 14% | -4% | -1% |
Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive | 39% | 31% | +8% | +0% |
More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25 | 31% | 33% | -2% | +1% |
More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5 | 15% | 17% | -2% | +0% |
More than 0.5 | 5% | 4% | +1% | +0% |
How politically polarized will U.S. citizens be in 2024?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Dec 30, 2021 04:57PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Dec 30, 2021 04:57PM UTC
(2 years ago)
How will the percentage of highly cited U.S. AI publications supported by a DoD grant change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2022 12:00AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Jan 11, 2022 12:00AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 04, 2022 01:43PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Jan 04, 2022 01:43PM UTC
(2 years ago)
How will annual money raised by private U.S. tech companies change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 13, 2022 12:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Jan 13, 2022 12:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 06, 2022 05:01PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Jan 06, 2022 05:01PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Which tech company will be the first to reach a market cap of $5 trillion?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Feb 28, 2022 01:34PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Feb 28, 2022 01:34PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Feb 17, 2022 10:16PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Feb 17, 2022 10:16PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Apple | 38% | 48% | -10% | +11% |
Microsoft | 24% | 22% | +2% | +3% |
Alphabet (Google) | 16% | 13% | +3% | -3% |
Amazon | 13% | 10% | +3% | -5% |
Tesla | 7% | 3% | +4% | -3% |
Meta (Facebook) | 2% | 1% | +1% | -3% |
Other | 0% | 2% | -2% | -1% |
What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2022?
Forecast Count:
17 Forecasts
17 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Apr 01, 2022 03:59AM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 21, 2022 02:21PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Mar 21, 2022 02:21PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than 14% | 1% | 3% | -2% | -1% |
Between 14% and 16%, inclusive | 5% | 12% | -7% | -2% |
More than 16% but less than or equal to 18% | 16% | 31% | -15% | -5% |
More than 18% but less than or equal to 20% | 41% | 40% | +1% | +4% |
More than 20% | 37% | 14% | +23% | +3% |
How will the number of Defense Innovation Unit transitions change over the next three years?
Forecast Count:
15 Forecasts
15 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 02, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Apr 02, 2022 11:00PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Forecast Last Updated:
Mar 21, 2022 02:28PM UTC
(2 years ago)
Mar 21, 2022 02:28PM UTC
(2 years ago)