I think it is possible and a progressive step in the right direction, however I do not know how likley it will be.
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New Prediction
Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?
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Probability
Answer
20%
Yes
80%
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
75%
Yes
25%
No
I believe it may be called something else in the report, but I do think there will be evidence.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
100%
No
Each of these platforms operate quite differently and likley have differing views of what this looks like. If it were to happen in 2023 I believe we would begin hearing about the adjustment at this point-halfway through the year.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Less than 4 million
100%
More than or equal to 4 million but less than 6 million
0%
More than or equal to 6 million
I think those who do register will do it in alignment with their voting party.
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My First Question
Congratulations on making your first forecast!
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
50%
Yes
50%
No
I think some platforms will be quicker to adapt the requirement than others.
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